Pirates vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 12

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates-New York Mets matchup on Monday.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes is an interesting prop target on Monday. / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes has gotten some weak run support this season from a terrible Pittsburgh offense, leading to a 3-4 record in his eight starts despite a sub. 3.00 ERA.

Skenes will take on the first-place New York Mets, who have won just five of their last 10 games but still have a 1.5-game lead in the NL East over the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York is a pretty sizable favorite at home in this one – even against Skenes – with David Peterson on the mound.

Can the Pirates pull off an upset with their ace in action?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this NL battle. 

Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-170)
• Mets -1.5 (+142)

Moneyline

• Pirates: +140
• Mets: -166

Total

• 7 (Over -122/Under +102)

Pirates vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA)
• New York: David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA)

Pirates vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 12
• Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, SportsNet PT
• Pirates record: 14-27
• Mets record: 26-15

Pirates vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Earlier on Monday, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column why Paul Skenes is a fade candidate in this matchup: 

This season, Skenes has pitched well for the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting a 2.77 ERA across eight starts.

However, he has not been as dominant when it comes to striking batters out as he was last season.

As a rookie, Skenes averaged 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but that number has dipped to 8.7 in his second season. Plus, the righty has failed to pick up seven or more punchouts in five of his eight outings in 2025.

This month, Skenes has just eight total strikeouts in two starts, and now he has a tough matchup against a New York team that is No. 5 in MLB in K’s per game (7.54). Now, Skenes could end up having one of his better starts of the season, but bettors would also be asking the Mets to hit their season average in Ks with Skenes still on the mound.

The advanced numbers also aren’t great for Skenes when compared to last season. He ranks in the 65th percentile in strikeout percentage, 62nd percentile in whiff percentage and 59th percentile in chase rate in 2025. 

Last season, Skenes was in the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage and 75th percentile in both whiff percentage and chase rate, per Statcast. 

Pirates vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The Pirates have been one of the worst offenses in MLB this season, ranking 29th in OPS and dead last in runs scored, so I’m eyeing a play on the total in this matchup.

With Skenes on the bump, Pittsburgh should be able to stay in the game in the early innings, as the youngster has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his eight starts in 2025. 

Meanwhile, the Mets have Peterson (3.05 ERA) on the mound, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in all seven of his starts in 2025.

Given the Pirates’ offensive struggles, I can’t see them pushing this game over the total in the early going. Since I don’t trust the Pittsburgh bullpen (4.24 ERA this season), I’ll stick with a first five innings play on Monday. 

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-166 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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