Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, May 30

Iain MacMillan | May 30, 2025

The Padres are huge home favorites with Nick Pivetta on the mound on Friday night. / David Frerker-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres are 4-8 in their last 12 games as they try to keep pace with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

Luckily for them, they have a weekend series against the 21-36 Pittsburgh Pirates in what oddsmakers think should be a layup win for San Diego.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bets for Friday night's series opening game.

Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-135)
• Padres -1.5 (+115)

Moneyline

• Pirates +165
• Padres -200

Total

• Over 7.5 (+100)
• Under 7.5 (-120)

Pirates vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Friday, May 30
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, Padres.TV, MLBN (out-of-market only)
• Pirates Record: 21-36
• Padres Record: 31-23

Pirates vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller, RHP (1-6, 3.66 ERA)
• San Diego: Nick Pivetta, RHP (5-2, 2.72 ERA)

Pirates vs. Padres Best Prop Bet

• Mitch Keller UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135) via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Padres' offense has been cold, but they continue to show plate discipline. They have struck out on just 19.1% of their plate appearances over the past month, which is the fourth-best mark in the Majors in that time frame. Tonight, they face Mitch Keller, whose strikeout numbers have been down this season. Last year, he struck out 8.4 batters per nine innings pitched, but that number has regressed to 7.7 in 2025. Let's take the UNDER on his strikeout total tonight.

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

In today's edition of Walk-Off Wagers, I broke down why I'm betting the UNDER in tonight's National League duel:

The San Diego Padres' bats have gone cold. They rank 28th in OPS over the past two weeks and, as you'd expect, the Pirates haven't been much better and have largely been one of the worst offenses all season.

That's great news for the two starting pitchers in this game. Mitch Keller (3.66 ERA) and Nick Pivetta (2.72 ERA) have both had strong starts to their respective seasons. All signs point to this being a low-scoring affair, so give me the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-120) via BetMGM

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