Pirates vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, May 18

The Pirates are slight favorites with Paul Skenes on the mound on Sunday.

The Pirates are slight favorites with Paul Skenes on the mound on Sunday. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Pirates are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and 6-18 on the road this season heading into a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday.

The Phillies are aiming to pull off a sweep in this rivalry matchup, but they are going to have a tough matchup – at least in the early innings – as Pirates ace Paul Skenes is on the mound.

Skenes has pitched well in 2025 (2.63 ERA), but a lack of run support has led to the Pirates going just 3-6 in his nine outings.

Can they turn that around on Sunday? Oddsmakers are buying Pittsburgh, setting it as a slight favorite. The Phillies have righty Mick Abel – one of their top prospects – set to make his MLB debut in this matchup.

Here’s a look at the odds, player props to bet and my game prediction for Sunday’s series finale. 

Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Pirates -1.5 (+145)
• Phillies +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

• Pirates: -112
• Phillies: -108

Total

• 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Pirates vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.63 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Mick Abel (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Pirates vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 18
• Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS-PH, SportsNet PT
• Pirates record: 15-31
• Phillies record: 27-18

Pirates vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB props column – Painting Corners – why Paul Skenes is actually a fade candidate on Sunday: 

As great as Skenes is, he has struggled in the strikeouts department in 2025, punching out six or fewer batters in six of his nine outings.

Now, he has a tough matchup against a Philadelphia team that is 11th in MLB in K’s per game, averaging just 7.91 per night. 

That will make it tough on the Pirates righty, especially since he has seen his K numbers fall off this month. Skenes has just 14 strikeouts in three May starts, failing to clear this line in all three outings.

According to Statcast, he ranks in just the 67th percentile in strikeout percentage and 59th percentile in whiff percentage. For comparison, he ranked in the 95th and 75th percentile in those respective rankings in 2024.

Pirates vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Since this is Abel’s debut, I’m going to side with the Pirates and Skenes in the early innings. Pittsburgh is impossible to trust with Skenes out of the game, as it has a 4.42 bullpen ERA this season and one of the worst offenses in baseball (dead last in runs scored).

However, Skenes should keep this Phillies offense in check early, as he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine starts in 2025.

Now, I’m not totally sold on Pittsburgh taking the lead early because of the lack of offense, but if you’re going to back a pitcher in this game, it has to be Skenes.

He’s pitched way better than his record, recording a 1.00 WHIP and 2.63 ERA in 2025. If Pittsburgh can get to Abel for just a run or two, I think the Pirates will be up through five frames. 

Pick: Pirates First 5 Innings ML (-135 at DraftKings)

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