Pirates vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 25

The Reds are favored at home on Thursday afternoon.

Are the Cincinnati Reds worth a bet on the UNDER with starting pitcher Nick Lodolo on the mound? / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Back-to-back losses have kept the Cincinnati Reds out of the final playoff spot in the National League, as they’re one game back of the New York Mets entering Thursday afternoon’s clash with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Cincy lost to Pirates ace Paul Skenes on Wednesday, and now it’ll face Braxton Ashcraft (2.62 ERA), who has worked as both a starter and a reliever for Pittsburgh this season. There’s a chance that Ashcraft only pitches a few innings on Thursday, as the Pirates have used him as an opener at points in 2025. 

The Reds will counter with lefty Nick Lodolo (3.44 ERA), who has led the team to a 14-13 record in his 27 appearances.

With a playoff spot up for grabs, can Cincy get a win as a home favorite? The Reds are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the standings, so there’s more than one team they have to worry about for that final wild card spot over the final games of the regular season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s action. 

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-151)
• Reds -1.5 (+124)

Moneyline

• Pirates: +138
• Reds: -169

Total

• 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Pirates vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Braxton Ashcraft (4-3, 2.62 ERA)
• Cincinnati: Nick Lodolo (8-8, 3.44 ERA)

Pirates vs. Reds How to Watch

• Date: Thursday Sept. 25
• Time: 12:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, FDSOH, SportsNet PT
• Pirates record: 69-89
• Reds record: 80-78

Pirates vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Braxton Ashcraft UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

This bet is simply a volume play for Ashcraft, who has pitched four or fewer innings in all four of his outings in September, and he may not go beyond that on Thursday.

Ashcraft has failed to clear this line in six of his last 10 outings (since Aug. 1), and he’ll likely need to throw more than three frames to get past this number against Cincy. 

Overall, Ashcraft ranks in just the 58th percentile in whiff percentage and the 62nd percentile in strikeout percentage in the 2025 season. 

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

So far in this series, these teams have combined for six and seven runs in their two games, yet the total on Thursday afternoon has jumped to eight.

Ashcraft may not pitch long in this game, but he has a sub-3.00 ERA for the season and has a pretty solid bullpen backing him up. For a Pittsburgh team that has struggled in 2025 record wise, it does have a decent pitching staff, posting a 3.88 bullpen ERA.

Lodolo (3.44 ERA) held the Pirates to just one run in six frames in his last start against them, and he ranks in the 68th percentile in expected ERA (3.57) this season.

Plus, these teams have both been elite at hitting the UNDER in 2025. The Reds are the best UNDER team in MLB (89-59-10) while the Pirates are second (89-63-6). 

I expect a low-scoring affair in this series finale. 

Pick: UNDER 8 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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