Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 1 (Bet on Baker Mayfield to Torch Falcons)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 4, 2025

Bet on Baker Mayfield to go over his passing yards total on Sunday against the Falcons. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The long NFL offseason is finally over and it's time to get Week 1 of the 2025 campaign underway.

Check out this week's edition of Road to 272 Bets if you want my best spread or total bet, but if you want to dip your toe in the player prop market, you've come to the right place. Every week, I'm going to rank my top 10 player props for this week's action. Let's dive into them.

Best Week 1 NFL Prop Bets

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Travis Etienne OVER 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Carolina Panthers had the worst run defense in the NFL last season. They finished last in opponent yards per carry (5.2), last in opponent rush EPA, and last in opponent rush success rate. Unless they completely revamped their run defense in the offseason, betting on a Jaguars running back to go over their rushing yards total seems like a smart move to make.

The Jaguars named both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne as co-starters at running back, so with how many carries each player will get up for debate, I'll bet on Etienne based on his having a lower rushing yards total than Bigsby.

9) Xavier Worthy OVER 59.5 Receiving yards (-114)

Xavier Worthy cranked up his level of play late in the season last year, especially in the playoffs. In the Chiefs' three playoff games, he racked up 19 receptions, 287 yards, and three touchdowns. If he carries that momentum into the 2025 season, he could be a great option in the prop market while Rashee Rice serves his suspension.

8) Joe Burrow OVER 263.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals have historically gotten off to slow starts to the season, but this year, the Bengals opted to play Burrow and other starters in the preseason. I'm banking on that leading to them being in better form to start the year, so I'm going to bet on Burrow to go over his passing yards total of 263.5. He averaged 289.3 passing yards per game last season, well over his set total for this game. The Browns also gave up 7.1 yards per throw last season, which ranked 26th in the NFL.

7) De’Von Achane OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

You might be surprised to find out that De'Von Achane led all running backs in the NFL last season in receiving yards, racking up 592 total receiving yards to 34.8 receiving yards per game. I expect him to play a featured role in this offense again in 2025. All he has to do is reach his 2024 season average on Sunday against the Colts, and this Dolphins running back will cash this prop for us.

6) George Pickens UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-172)

I'm low on George Pickens this season. He averaged just 4.2 receptions per game last season as the No. 1 receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, he's the No. 2 receiver in Dallas with CeeDee Lamb expected to still get the bulk of the targets. Let's also remember that Dak Prescott had his worst season of his career in 2024 before going down with an injury. He completed just 64.7% of passes for 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. I don't trust him to dish the rock to Pickens enough tonight.

5) James Cook Anytime Touchdown (+100)

People forget that James Cook was tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns last season, finding the end zone 16 different times. I expect him to have another big 2025 campaign after signing an extension with the Buffalo Bills in the preseason. I think he finds the end zone in the Week 1 edition of Sunday Night Football.

4) Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 4.5 Receptions (+102)

People don't think of Wan'Dale Robinson as one of the best receivers in the NFL, and he's probably not, but he did have the 13th most receptions in the league last season, racking up 93 total catches. His season average was 5.5 receptions per game, yet we can bet on the OVER 4.5 receptions in Week 1 at plus-money. Let's remember that with the Washington Commanders being significant favorites could lead to the Giants putting up plenty of garbage-time yards as they attempt to play catch-up.

3) Baker Mayfield OVER 239.5 Passing Yards (-114)

As a Falcons fan, this hurts me to write, but I think Baker Mayfield is going to torch their secondary in this game. A lack of depth in Atlanta's secondary is one of the Falcons' biggest weaknesses this season, and the Buccaneers' receivers might be their biggest strength. Let's remember that Mayfield threw for 330 yards against the Falcons the last time he faced them. There's a chance he soars over this number on Sunday afternoon.

2) Justin Fields UNDER 27.5 Pass Attempts (-128)

I'm shocked Justin Fields' passing attempts number is this high. Aaron Glenn has dropped plenty of hints over the past few weeks that the Jets are going to be a run-first offense. Stating he's going to use all three running backs while getting in an argument with a reporter about whether or not this is a passing league tells me all I need to know. Fields' legs will be used more than his arm this season, including in Week 1 against the Steelers.

1) Matthew Stafford UNDER 240.5 Passing Yards (-114)

My best player prop for the opening week of the NFL season is for Matthew Stafford to fail to reach 241 or more yards. He averaged just 235.1 passing yards per game last season, so he has to throw for at least five more yards than his 2024 average for this bet to cash. On top of that, Stafford has some health issues, dealing with a back injury throughout the entire preseason.

As a cherry on top, the Houston Texans allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt last season at 6.2 yards per throw, while also allowing a total of just 200.3 passing yards per game. In my opinion, this bet is a no-brainer.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!