The Players Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting on Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood

SI Golf staff | Mar 13, 2025

Ludvig Aberg (left), Collin Morikawa (center) and Tommy Fleetwood (right) are among this week's picks to win The Players Championship. / Collin Morikawa: Andrew Redington/Getty ImagesLudvig Aberg: Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesTommy Fleetwood: Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesBackground: James Gilbert/PGA TOUR via Getty Images

The Players Championship is arguably the best golf tournament outside of the majors every year, and it’s also one of the hardest to handicap. With narrow fairways, unpredictable weather, and tons of water across TPC Sawgrass, including the famed 17th island green, it’s hard to predict who will come out on top at this event. 

The SI Golf Panel is looking to make it two wins in three weeks after missing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational following a winning pick at the Cognizant. 

The panel is comprised of SI Golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor and golf bettor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra.

Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

On the year, Kirschner is up 94.25 units having picked Joe Highsmith (110/1) at the Cognizant. MacMillan is 4-1 in his prop bet picks this year and down 7.86 units overall. Vincenzi is 2-3 on props and down 12 units overall. Giuffra is 3-2 on props and down 12.94 units overall. Williams hit his first prop last week and is -17.1 units. Schwarb is down 18 units having hit one prop.  

This week, the panel has a mixed bag of picks. None of us took the same outright winning. We do have a few of the same longshot picks, first-round leader picks and prop bets, so here’s hoping some of those hit and we have a big performance. 

Now, onto our betting picks for The Players Championship. Full breakdown of the picks is below the graphic.

UPDATE: Jason Day was a late scratch at The Players due to an illness.

Players Championship Betting Picks / Sports Illustrate

Outright Pick

Iain MacMillan: Collin Morikawa (+1400, FanDuel)

Since TPC Sawgrass started growing out the rough to 3.5 inches two years ago, driving accuracy has become even more important. Collin Morikawa is fourth on the PGA Tour this season in driving accuracy and by far the most accurate driver of the top golfers on the odds list. He’s also coming into this event in great form with two runner-up finishes in 2025, including at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Matt Vincenzi: Ludvig Åberg (+1800, DraftKings)

Ludvig Aberg is an ascending superstar who should be perfectly suited for the stern test of TPC Sawgrass. He’s been practicing at the course for months and played in the Junior Players Championship in the past. Historically, The Players has been a hot spot for young, transcendent talents and the Swede fits the bill.

John Schwarb: Tommy Fleetwood (+3000, FanDuel)

The Players is a tough handicap, but I’m not overthinking it by going too far down the board. Tommy Fleetwood is around the seventh betting choice depending on your book and his steady game holds up at Sawgrass—he has two top-7 finishes in seven starts with just one missed cut. This season has been steady, too, with a T5 at the Genesis and T11 at Bay Hill. Hard to believe he still doesn’t have a PGA Tour win, but I’ll take a flyer on that ending this week. 

Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley (+5000, DraftKings) 

Why don't we inject a little drama into Keegan’s Ryder Cup captaincy with a Players Championship win and an auto-qualifying spot? Without a doubt, Keegan is playing well enough to win this event. I was extremely impressed with his ball striking last week at API, gaining a staggering six strokes on approach and leading the field. He also gained over four the week before at Torrey. Although he missed his last two cuts here, he has a 5th and 7th in his career since 2018. I think this is Keegan's week to win. 

Cody Williams: Daniel Berger (+6500, FanDuel)

While course history at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS is among the least sticky on the PGA Tour, Daniel Berger has my attention after finishing T9 and T13 in 2021 and 2022, respectively, his last two starts here. Part of that is simply because of the overall success in his career at similar short-ish courses and even Pete Dye designs. His worst finish is T25 in his last four starts this season, including tying for runner-up at Phoenix. His pinpoint driving and ball-striking should put him in a position to avoid trouble and attack what could be a getable golf course and finally get back into the winner’s circle. 

Brian Giuffra: Patrick Cantlay (+4000, DraftKings)

Cantlay hasn’t had a ton of success at Sawgrass, and he hasn’t won in a few years either. But this seems to be the year where winless streaks end and this is the kind of course where volatility reigns supreme, so I’m willing to wager Cantlay gets it done. His game seemingly fits this course perfectly: accurate tee-to-green, great putter, avoids bogeys, deliberate attitude. It’s only a matter of time before Cantlay wins and, like Russell Henley winning the API last week, this would be the biggest of his career.  

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Aaron Rai (+7500, FanDuel)

If accuracy is the most important factor at TPC Sawgrass, we should all give some strong consideration to Aaron Rai. He’s sixth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 30th in greens in regulation percentage and he’s fresh off a T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a great spot for the Englishman to thrive.

Matt Vincenzi: Jason Day (+6000, DraftKings) DAY WAS A LATE SCRATCH

Seven players have won the Players Championship multiple times. Apart from Jack Nicklaus and Scottie Scheffler, the other five waited between six and 17 years to claim their second Players victories. Jason Day, who won at TPC Sawgrass in 2016, fits this pattern with a nine-year gap since his last win, a timeframe consistent with five of the seven repeat champions. The Australian recently reunited with his childhood coach, Colin Swatton, and their collaboration has already paid dividends, especially with the putter, which is the club primarily responsible for Day’s previous rise to number one in the world. 

John Schwarb: Justin Rose (+12500, BetMGM)

Justin Rose is making his 21st start at the Players and I was surprised to find his career at Sawgrass to be a mixed bag, with more missed cuts (eight) than top-25s (six). He’s 125-1 for a reason, but for a longshot, I prefer a savvy player on a thinker’s course that isn’t a bomber’s palace. His 2025 has also been a mixed bag with two missed cuts but also a T3 at Pebble Beach and T8 at Bay Hill. Let’s lean into last week and see if he can keep the Florida mojo going.

Brian Kirschner: Daniel Berger (+6500, FanDuel) 

Although not the longest odds, 65/1 on a proven winner like Dan Berger is a longshot in my book for The Players. On paper, this is a great course for the four-time PGA Tour winner: An accurate driver, elite iron player at his best and a good Bermuda putter. Coming off a 25th at the Cognizant and 15th at API, he is certainly in form in his home state of Florida. He’s been 9th and 13th in his last two appearances here, so there is no doubt in my mind he can contend and be a Players champion. 

Cody Williams: Andrew Putnam (+27000, FanDuel)

Let’s get really long with this week’s longshot. As mentioned, course history isn’t all that important here, which is good news for Putnam, who has four missed cuts and a solo 53rd in five starts here. Having said that, he was T11 in his last start at Cognizant and T25 in Phoenix not long before that. He’s 10th in Bogey Avoidance in this field over his last 20 rounds, Top 30 in weighted SG: Approach over that same span, and Top 20 in SG: Putting on Bermuda. At 270/1, he’s going to get a look from me because he looks more valuable than that right now. 

Brian Giuffra: Aaron Rai (+7500, FanDuel) 

Rai is one of the most accurate drivers on tour, which has served him well at Sawgrass with a T35 and T19 finish the last two years. He makes among the most birdies on tour thanks to an outstanding approach game, and while his slow play on the greens has garnered attention, he is among the best putters on tour too. This would be a big step up from his first win at the Wyndham Championship last year, but Rai’s form is solid (T11 at API last week) and his game translates well on this course. 

First-Round Leader 

Iain MacMillan: Keegan Bradley (+5500, DraftKings)

I’m going to bet on Keegan Bradley to carry the momentum from his electric Sunday round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational into a first-round lead at The Players Championship. He’s posted some impressive numbers this season, including ranking 17th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He also has plenty of experience at TPC Sawgrass, posting a seventh-place finish in 2018 and a fifth-place finish in 2022.

Matt Vincenzi: Joel Dahmen (+11000, DraftKings):

Joel Dahmen fits every trend I’m looking at for Players success and is playing some underrated golf of late. He has two top 10 finishes in his last four starts and has been gaining significant strokes on the field with his approach play. Dahmen has played very well at TPC Sawgrass, including a T11 finish last season. The 37-year-old also has a preferential AM tee time on Thursday. 

John Schwarb: Wyndham Clark (+5500, DraftKings)

Gotta think Wyndham Clark has this week starred on his calendar after finishing one shot shy of Scottie Scheffler last year with a savage lip-out on the 72nd hole. His game hasn’t been great this year (his best finish is a T15 at the Sentry), but on a couple of occasions, he’s gotten out fast, including the first-round lead last week at Bay Hill. I’m not sure he’ll completely exorcise last year, but for one day I’ll take a shot at him taming TPC Sawgrass.

Brian Kirschner: JJ Spaun (+8000, DraftKings)

We were very close with Keegan FRL last week and this is a market I have always enjoyed. I think JJ is very live this week and I can see him coming out to a hot start. JJ was second in approach last week at Bay Hill but couldn't buy a putt. Off a runner-up finish at the Cognizant, there is no doubt he can play in Florida. I can see him being a “random” FRL at The Players en route to a top 15 finish. 

Cody Williams: Si Woo Kim (+6500, FanDuel)

After an inauspicious start to the 2025 season, Si Woo Kim has started to find his form with four straight Top 25 finishes, including three of those in signature events. Now, back to the place where he enjoyed his breakout win in 2017, I think those good vibes continue with a strong start at a place where he’s been uber-comfortable. Kim has been dynamic on Pete Dye designs in his career. While I’m not sure his approach play is consistent enough for a win right now, I think he presents enough value to pop up as a first-round leader. 

Brian Giuffra: Joel Dahmen (+11000, FanDuel) 

After a slow start to the season, Dahmen has been playing some of the best golf of his career recently with two Top 10s in his last four starts. The key has been accuracy off the tee and approach, which has led to bogey avoidance and a ton of birdies. Dahmen has an early tee time on Thursday, which has been critical to FRL at The Players the last five years, and has a solid history at Sawgrass with a T11 finish last year and a T12 in 2019. 

Prop Bet 

Iain MacMillan: Doug Ghim Top 20 (+350, BetMGM)

Not enough people are talking about how Doug Ghim has been striking the ball this season. He’s fifth on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained approach. His irons have been dialed in, but his putter has been so bad that he has yet to truly contend in an event this season. That said, he still has posted a T21 finish at The American Express and a T11 at the Cognizant Classic. Let’s also not forget that he has a T16 and T6 finish at The Players already in his career.

Matt Vincenzi: Nick Taylor Top 20 (+350, DraftKings)

Over his past 24 rounds, the Canadian ranks first in the field in strokes-gained approach. He’s also an accurate driver of the ball who should be able to avoid the trouble at TPC Sawgrass. Over the past handful of years, we’ve seen players who were in form and having the best season to date show up at the Players and compete. Taylor certainly fits the bill. This season, he’s already won the Sony Open in Hawaii and has a T9 at Torrey Pines in a signature event.

John Schwarb: Shane Lowry Top 20 (+160, BetMGM)

Last week I said I had to have Shane Lowry on my betting card. Unfortunately, he didn’t pan out as my first-round leader. So let’s take him here to finish top 20, which seems very doable. He was seventh last week at Bay Hill and a top-20 bet would have cashed in three of his five events this year. A little sprinkle on a top 10 sounds good too.

Brian Kirschner: Nick Taylor Top Canadian (+400 DraftKings) 

This is great value on the No. 1 approach player in the field over the past 24 rounds. I don’t know if he can win this event, but +400 to beat Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith seems like extreme value and a market to target. Finishing 26th in his last appearance, I think it’s a spot he can excel with his current elite iron play. 

Cody Williams: Doug Ghim Top 20 (+350, BetMGM)

Iain, who I once told (much to his dismay) resembled Doug Ghim, is on the right page here. Over the last 20 rounds, Ghim is first in this field in weighted SG: Approach and has a couple of nice finishes to show for it with T11 at Cognizant and T21 at The American Express. After finishing T16 here last year and Top 30 in three of his four starts at THE PLAYERS, and while also being sixth in Good Drive Percentage over the last 20 rounds as well, his ball-striking looks more than good enough right now to reel off another Top 20 at Sawgrass.

Brian Giuffra: Hole in One on 17th Hole YES (+145, FanDuel) 

Over the last three years, there have been five hole-in-ones total at the famed 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass and at least one every year. Before that, there were only nine total in the history of The Players Championship. Whether that’s a result of more favorable pin placements, better equipment, better technology, or a combination of all three, I’ll bet there’s another ace on the island green this year. 

Winning Score 

• Iain MacMillan: -18
• Matt Vincenzi: -15
• John Schwarb: -16
• Brian Kirschner: -16
• Cody Williams: -21
• Brian Giuffra: - 17