Purdue vs. Houston Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Reed Wallach | Mar 27, 2025

Mar 13, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives to the basket around Colorado Buffaloes guard Felix Kossaras (15) during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

The No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, Houston, has looked the part thus far, most recently handling No. 8 seed Gonzaga en route to the Sweet 16 where the team will face No. 4 seed Purdue. 

Last year’s National Championship runners-up, Purdue, will look to continue its run towards a title by upsetting Houston in nearby Indianapolis, Indiana at Lucas Oil Stadium. Can the likes of Braden Smith and big man Trey Kaufman-Renn keep up with the rugged Cougars' defense? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Purdue vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Purdue: +7.5 (-115)
• Houston: -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Purdue: +270
• Houston: -345

Total: 132.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Purdue vs. Houston How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 28th
• Game Time: 10:09 PM EST
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Purdue Record: 24-11
• Houston Record: 32-4

Purdue vs. Houston Key Players to Watch

Purdue

Braden Smith: The veteran guard will have to outclass the best defense in the country according to KenPom. Most of Purdue’s elite offense funnels through Smith, who is second in the country in assist rate and is shooting 38% from beyond the arc. However, this will be his toughest assignment of the season. 

Houston

L.J. Cryer: The veteran dropped 30 points on Gonzaga in the second round, draining six of his eight three-point attempts in the 81-76 win. One of the premier shot makers in the country, Cryer is shooting nearly 43% from beyond the arc and is also a lockdown defender, he’ll be tasked with aiding the Cougars past an elite offense. 

Purdue vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

Both teams play in the halfcourt, but I still will be taking the over in this matchup. 

For starters, the Cougars should feast on the inside against Purdue’s porous defense that is 341st in the country in two-point percentage. The Boilermakers have tried to mask its poor defense with heavy ball pressure on the perimeter, but the Cougars are top 25 in the country in turnover rate, so I expect the team to handle that well and dictate the shot volume battle. 

I like both teams to find success on offense with both teams ranking top 10 in the country in three-point percentage and despite there being limited possessions, both teams found enough success to send this game over. 

Ultimately, Houston is the far better two-way roster that can win the battle on the glass and also shut down Kaufman-Renn around the perimeter. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have enough offensive firepower on the perimeter to play at least average on that side of the ball by testing the Cougars' defense along the arc. 

With free throws likely coming into play at the end of this one with Houston clinging to a lead, I like this game to get over the pedestrian total. 

PICK: OVER 132.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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