Raiders vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 1 (New Coaching Eras Translate Tight Lines in Foxborough)

Sean Treppedi | Sep 5, 2025

Mike Vrabel’s Patriots and Pete Carroll’s Raiders open 2025 with a tight matchup that pits two veteran coaches trying to spark quick turnarounds. / Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s a new era of coaching for both the Raiders and Patriots getting a showcase against one another in Week 1.

Pete Carroll takes over in Las Vegas with Geno Smith under center and Brock Bowers already flashing star potential, while Mike Vrabel begins his tenure in New England hoping to build around second-year quarterback Drake Maye. 

Both teams slogged to 4-13 finishes last season, but optimism lingers thanks to new leadership and roster upgrades on each side. The matchup itself is tight on paper, setting the stage for one of the more evenly priced betting lines on the Week 1 slate.

Raiders vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Panthers +2.5 (-110)
• Jaguars -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Panthers (+114)
• Jaguars (-134)

Total

• Over 43.5 (-110)
• Under 43.5 (-110)

Raiders vs. Patriots How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Raiders Record: 0-0
• Patriots Record: 0-0

Raiders vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction

I’m not sure laying the 2.5 points with New England feels comfortable when weighed against the matchup data. The Patriots ranked 30th in offensive DVOA last season and finished dead last in both pass-block and run-block win rate. That’s a troubling setup against a Raiders defensive front that, even without Christian Wilkins, still placed top 12 in both disruption metrics and brings Maxx Crosby into a plus matchup off the edge.

Las Vegas also dealt with one of the league’s highest defensive injury tolls in 2024, second only to Detroit, a factor that skewed its drop from eighth to 18th in defensive DVOA year over year. Healthy and reinforced, the Raiders project closer to their 2023 form, when their defense was a borderline top-10 unit. 

Carroll’s ability to craft defensive game plans that squeeze inexperienced quarterbacks is an empirically tested schematic advantage against Maye. Even with Vrabel’s defensive structure and home-field advantage, I see the Pats’ inability to protect the passer or establish consistent drives bleeding into the early portion of 2025.

Add in that New England wasn’t favored once all of last season and is now laying points against a roster with more proven veterans and Viva Las Vegas. 

Final score prediction: Raiders 20, Patriots 17

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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