Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 1

Iain MacMillan | Sep 2, 2025

Drake Maye and the Patriots are home favorites against the Raiders in Week 1. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots are set to begin their 2025 campaigns against each other in Week 1.

The Raiders are looking to start the Pete Carroll era on the right foot. Geno Smith is in at quarterback, Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman finalist, is in at running back, and the defense is healthy and ready to be unleashed. The Patriots are also looking to get off to a strong start with a new head coach. Former Patriots linebacker and 2021 coach of the year with the Tennessee Titans, Mike Vrabel, takes over as head coach of his former team.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for this AFC matchup.

Raiders vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Raiders +2.5 (-104)
• Patriots -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Raiders +122
• Patriots -144

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-120)
• UNDER 43.5 (-102)

Raiders vs. Patriots How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 7
• Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Raiders Record: 0-0
• Patriots Record: 0-0

Raiders vs. Patriots Betting Trends

• The UNDER is 5-1 in the Raiders' last six games
• Raiders are 3-13 straight up in their last 16 road games
• Patriots are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games vs. Raiders
• The OVER is 15-5 in the Raiders' last 20 games vs. AFC East opponents
• The OVER is 6-1 in the Patriots' last seven games
• The OVER is 6-0 in the Patriots' last six home games
• Patriots are 1-5 ATS the last six times they've been set as favorites

Raiders vs. Patriots Injury Reports

Raiders Injury Report

• Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB - IR-R
• Aidan O'Connell, QB - IR
• Kenny Pcikett, QB - Questionable
• Kyu Blu Kelly, CB - Questionable

Patriots Injury Report

• Stefon Diggs, WR - Questionable
• Christian Gonzalez, CB - Questionable
• Layden Robinson, G - IR
• Jahlani Tavai, LB - IR-R
• Ja'Lynn Polk, WR - IR

Raiders vs. Patriots Key Player to Watch

Drake Maye, QB - New England Patriots

There's no denying Drake Maye had a solid rookie season. In 13 games and 12 starts, Maye completed 66.6% of passes for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. With that being said, the Patriots' quarterback needs to take a step forward in 2025. His 2024 numbers were solid for a rookie, but they aren't good for a second-year starter. He has a big year ahead of him.

Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm taking the points with the Raiders as road underdogs:

Betting on Week 1 of the NFL season is all about putting your money where your mouth is on your offseason outlooks for each team. We have nothing to go off in terms of stats and metrics from this season, so we have to base our bets on the previous year's numbers along with roster changes.

The New England Patriots are a team that bettors and oddsmakers are favoring quite a bit this year, expecting them to take a significant step forward in Drake Maye's second season and Mike Vrabel's first as the team's head coach. I'm not ready to buy in on New England yet; therefore, I'm going to bet against them in this spot and take the field goal with the Raiders.

The Raiders' defense was better than people thought last season, ranking somewhere between 10th and 15th in most metrics. Now, with a much more consistent quarterback in Geno Smith, they'll be a tough out for most teams they face.

Pick: Raiders +2.5 (-104) via FanDuel

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