Rays vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, May 18

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Tampa Bay Rays-Miami Marlins matchup on Sunday, May 18.

Miami Marlins center fielder Kyle Stowers is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the better road teams in MLB, and they’ll aim to keep that going on Sunday against the last-place Miami Marlins.

Miami is 17-27 and fifth in the NL East division heading into this matchup. Tampa Bay (10-7 straight up on the road) is under .500, but it is just five games out of first place in what has been a weak AL East this season.

The Rays have righty Shane Baz on the mound against Miami’s Cal Quantrill, and both starters have been far from lights out in 2025.

Will that lead to a high-scoring affair in this series finale?

Here’s a breakdown of my best bet for this game, as well as the latest odds for this matchup between MLB’s two Floridian squads. 

Rays vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Rays -1.5 (+102)
• Marlins +1.5 (-122)

Moneyline

• Rays: -166
• Marlins: +140

Total

• 8.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Rays vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Tampa Bay: Shane Baz (3-2, 5.02 ERA)
• Miami: Cal Quantrill (2-4, 7.00 ERA)

Rays vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 18
• Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: loanDepot park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSFL, FDSSUN
• Rays record: 21-24
• Marlins record: 17-27

Rays vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Stowers is a steal at this price on Sunday afternoon: 

Marlins youngster Kyle Stowers is off to a great start in 2025, hitting .304 with 10 home runs and .946 OPS. 

He’s been even better over the last week, hitting .364 with three homers in his last six games, a great sign heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays will have righty Shane Baz on the mound, and the young starting pitcher has struggled in 2025, posting a 5.02 ERA while allowing seven home runs in eight starts. 

That’s great news for Stowers, who has hit all 10 of his homers this season against right-handed pitching. In fact, Stowers has a .591 slugging percentage against righties and is averaging one homer for every 11 at bats against them.

The Rays’ bullpen has also given up 20 homers in 2025, so Stowers should have a solid chance to go deep even once Baz exits the game on Sunday. 

Rays vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

This could be a high-scoring matchup based on how these pitchers have fared in 2025.

Quantrill comes into Sunday’s matchup with a 7.00 ERA, allowing at least three runs in six of his eight starts. On the Tampa Bay side, Baz has been awful in the month of May, posting a 10.54 ERA across three outings.

In Baz’s May outings, he’s allowed a whopping 21 hits in 13.2 innings of work.

I don’t trust this Miami bullpen to hold things down even if Quantrill avoids another poor outing, as the ‘pen has a 4.69 ERA in 2025. That’s a big reason why the Marlins are 27-17 to the OVER this season, the second-best mark in MLB. 

These aren’t elite offensive clubs, but these starters have yielded a combined 10 games this season with nine or more runs. I expect a similar result on Sunday. 

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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