Rays vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, June 13

Sean Treppedi | Jun 13, 2025

Clay Holmes knack for inducing ground balls affects his strikeout rate, which is why we're fading him in that prop market on Friday against the Rays. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Mets roll into the weekend with back-to-back sweeps after washing their hands of the Nationals at Citi Field. Now they’ll welcome the Rays, who have been standing their ground in the AL East 6 ½ games behind even after dropping a series to the Red Sox. 

New York took some sour news with stellar reliever Kodai Senga leaving Thursday’s game with a hamstring injury that will send him to the 15-day injury list. 

Right-hander Taj Bradley (4–5, 4.58 ERA) will start for Tampa, who has a knack for inducing grounders and ranks in the 74th percentile in hard-hit rate and 78th in ground-ball rate, translating into consistent contact suppression despite a modest ERA. 

Opposing him is Clay Holmes (7–3, 2.95 ERA), the Mets’ ground-ball master whose sinker-heavy arsenal places him in the 90th percentile for ground-ball rate, a particularly tough matchup for a Rays lineup that also relies heavily on grounders

Rays vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rays +1.5 (-140)
• Mets -1.5 (+116)

Moneyline

• Rays (+152)
• Mets (-180)

Total

• Over 8 (-115)
• Under 8 (-105)

Rays vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Rays: Taj Bradley (4-5, 4.58 ERA)
• Mets: Clay Holmes (67-3, 2.95 ERA)

Rays vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Friday, June 13, 2025
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, FDSN Sun
• Rays Record: 36-32
• Mets Record: 45-24

Rays vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Clay Holmes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-156 at FanDuel)

Make no mistake: Holmes has been stellar this season, posting a 1.19 WHIP and 65 strikeouts in 73.1 innings over 13 starts. But he is not a strikeout pitcher. His K/9 rate is 7.98. Despite this, as mentioned above, his success comes from generating contact and relying heavily on his 66.7% ground-ball rate (100th percentile) and elite barrel suppression (2.4%, 99th percentile). His arsenal — a sinker-slider-heavy mix — focuses on weak contact over whiffs, which makes going deep another layer of this prop’s value (73.1 Inn, 13 GS).

Holmes has cleared this line only once in his last eight starts. With the Rays emphasizing contact and ongoing bullpen plans for quick hooks, he is well-positioned to fall below this threshold.

Rays vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The Rays enter their series playing more solid baseball than anyone could have projected ahead of the season. They have won six of their last 10 games and rank among the league’s best offenses over the past two weeks, particularly against right-handed pitching. However, the Mets have been even hotter, riding a six-game win streak and leading the majors in wRC+, OPS, and ISO over that same span. 

But I’m fading both offenses on Friday and here’s why: Bradley’s underlying metrics on his Statcast profile are suggesting he's been better than his 4.58 ERA indicates — he ranks in the top quartile in hard-hit, barrel, and ground ball rates. 

Despite the Mets' red-hot lineup, Bradley's contact suppression skills make him a potential sleeper. On the other side, Clay Holmes and his elite ground ball rate could be a problem for a Rays lineup that also ranks third in ground ball rate — a possible recipe for early offensive frustration for Tampa Bay.

Pick: Under 8 (-108 at FanDuel)

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