Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 9

Sean Treppedi | Jun 9, 2025

Shane Baz is primed to pitch another deep start against the Red Sox — which he did in his season-best outing back in April. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

As the spring comes to a close, Tampa Bay has been the AL East’s biggest surprise. It has gone 14-6 in its last 20 games. 

The Red Sox now return home after a quick trip to the Bronx in which they exploded for 27 runs and took the series. Although they sit 8 ½ games back in the division, Boston proved it can perform to its preseason expectations even with an adjusted lineup compensating for Alex Bregman’s injury. 

Boston took the last series against Tampa Bay in April as Shane Baz (4-3, 5.96 ERA) had the one victory with 11 strikeouts. Brayan Bello (2-1, 3.91 ERA) will get his first start against the Rays this season. 

I’ll dive into a player prop and a game prediction you can consider. 

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rays -1.5 (+158)
• Red Sox +1.5 (-192)

Moneyline

• Rays (+104)
• Red Sox (-112)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-110)
• Under 8.5 (-110)

Rays vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• Rays: Shane Baz (4-3, 5.96 ERA)
• Red Sox: Brayan Bello (2-1, 3.91 ERA)

Rays vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Friday, June 6, 2025
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSN Sun, NESN
• Rays Record: 35-30
• Red Sox Record: 32-35

Rays vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Shane Baz Over 16.5 Outs (-110 at BetMGM)

Baz has been collecting himself through the Rays' ascension over the past few weeks. He’s made it past 16 outs in three of his last four starts. He cruised through the Red Sox lineup allowing only two hits through six innings on April 14. Baz is best at pulling ground balls, running with a 49.2% ground ball rate that puts him in Statcast’s top 78 percentile. 

Boston is tied for the eleventh-most ground outs in the league. Baz’s biggest improvement is the uptick in his fastball velocity (96.8%) along with a significantly better putaway rate with his changeup. He’s slightly better on the road (4.24 ERA), so this is a good spot for him to pitch a deep game on Monday.

Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Despite Fenway’s usual hitter-friendly conditions, it’s going to be a cool night in Boston with the entirety of this game forecasted to be sub-60 degrees along with light showers and 10 mph winds blowing in from the outfield.

Baz curbed this lineup, which I think should return to earth on Monday after scorching the Yankees, two months ago. There should be no shortage of groundouts as Bello is even more efficient than Baz at eliciting them, getting them at a 53.7% rate.

Pitching has prevailed in the last 10 meetings between these two at Fenway with the Under hitting seven times. 

Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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