Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 10

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Tampa Bay Rays-Boston Red Sox series opener on Thursday night.

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero is a great prop target on Thursday. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are locked in a tight race in the AL East division, as both teams are within striking distance of the top spot and Boston is just 1.5 games back of Tampa entering Thursday’s action. 

The Red Sox will turn to veteran Walker Buehler on the mound in this matchup, but the righty has struggled in the 2025 season, posting a 6.25 ERA across 15 starts.

The Rays will counter with Taj Bradley, who has struggled over his last six starts, posting a 7.00 ERA while seeing his season-long ERA rise to 4.79. 

Oddsmakers have set Boston as a slight favorite at home in this matchup, but how should we bet on these two teams?

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and more for this AL East battle. 

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Rays -1.5 (+147)
• Red Sox +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline

• Rays: -106
• Red Sox: -115

Total

• 9 (Over -121/Under -101)

Rays vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• Tampa Bay: Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.79 ERA)
• Boston: Walker Buehler (6-6, 6.25 ERA)

Rays vs. Red Sox How to Watch 

• Date: Thursday, July 10
• Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, NESN, FDSSUN
• Rays record: 50-43
• Red Sox record: 49-45

Rays vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

• Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Caminero is worth a look against Boston: 

Tampa Bay Rays youngster Junior Caminero is having an awesome 2025 season, hitting .254 with 22 home runs and a .798 OPs.

The 22-year-old has thrived against right-handed pitching, socking 17 of his 22 homers against them while seeing his OPS rise to .824. 

He’s an intriguing target in this market on Thursday against Boston Red Sox righty Walker Buehler, who has struggled in his first season in Boston. Buehler enters this start with a 6.25 ERA, and he’s allowed 15 home runs in 15 starts this season.

This is a pretty favorable price for Caminero in a game that should have a lot of runs scored. 

Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

This pitching matchup lines up perfectly for an OVER bet, as Buehler and Bradley have both been shaky on the mound in 2025.

Out of Buehler’s 15 starts, he has seven where he’s allowed at least four runs, and he’s really struggled over his last seven outings, posting a 9.29 ERA while leading Boston to a 2-5 record.

Since both he and Bradley have been rocked since the start of June, I have a hard time betting on them to turn things around in this series opener. 

Plus, Boston is one of the better teams in MLB at hitting the OVER this season, going 47-45-2. I’d be surprised to see both of these starters hold up enough to keep this game under 10 total runs on Thursday. 

Pick: OVER 9 (-121 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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