Reds vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, April 21

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Cincinnati Reds-Miami Marlins matchup on Monday night.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer is a solid prop target on Monday. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds are sitting at .500 on the season, but they have an impressive +32 run differential heading into Monday night’s matchup against the Miami Marlins.

Two young pitchers – Cincy’s Nick Lodolo and Miami’s Max Meyer – will take the mound in this matchup, and oddsmakers are giving the Reds a slight edge on the road.

Miami has dropped six of its last 10 games, but it did pick up a win on Sunday to move to 9-12 on the season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Monday’s contest. 

Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Reds -1.5 (+136)
• Marlins +1.5 (-162)

Moneyline

• Reds: -125
• Marlins: +105

Total

• 8 (Over -108/Under -112)

Reds vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Cincinnati: Nick Lodolo (2-1, 2.31 ERA)
• Miami: Max Meyer (1-2, 2.63 ERA)

Reds vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Monday, April 21
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: LoanDepot park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSFL, FDSOH
• Reds record: 11-11
• Marlins record: 9-12

Reds vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Max Meyer OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB prop column – Painting Corners – why Meyer is worth a look on Monday: 

Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer has at least seven strikeouts in three of his four starts in the 2025 season, and he could be trending towards yet another big strikeout number on Monday.

Meyer is facing the Cincinnati Reds, who rank 20th in MLB in strikeouts per game, averaging over eight per night. 

That bodes well for Meyer, who ranks in the 74th percentile in strikeout percentage and 81st percentile in whiff percentage this season, per Statcast.

Meyer is set at +125 to pick up six or more K’s, which feels like a steal since he’s picked up at least 17 outs in every outing this season. 

Reds vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

I’m buying both starters in this matchup, as Lodolo has allowed more than two runs in just one start this season, including two outings where he did not give up a run.

On the Marlins side, Meyer is off to a great start in 2025, posting 2.63 ERA while giving up three or fewer runs in every outing.

Miami is one of the best OVER teams in baseball this season, but a lot of that has to do with the team's bullpen, which has a 4.32 ERA. Meyer, who has gotten at least 17 outs in every start, should be able to get through five innings in this matchup.

This total is a little high given how well these starters have fared through four outings in 2025. 

Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 (-130 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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