Reds vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 23

Are the Reds undervalued as underdogs in this series finale?

Are the Reds undervalued as underdogs in this series finale? / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The Miami Marlins have picked up back-to-back wins over the Cincinnati Reds heading into Wednesday afternoon’s series finale.

Usually for Marlins fans, the fact that Sandy Alcantara was on the mound would be a welcome sight, but the former Cy Young award winner has struggled in his first season back since Tommy John surgery.

Still, he and the Marlins are favored in the latest odds on Wednesday against Brady Singer and the Reds. Singer has led Cincy to a 3-1 record in his four starts, but he was chased in the fifth inning in a loss in his last outing.

Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s contest. 

Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Reds +1.5 (-185)
• Marlins -1.5 (+154)

Moneyline

• Reds: +110
• Marlins: -130

Total

• 8.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Reds vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Cincinnati: Brady Singer (3-0, 3.80 ERA)
• Miami: Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 7.27 ERA)

Reds vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, April 23
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: LoanDepot park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSFL, FDSOH
• Reds record: 11-13
• Marlins record: 11-12

Reds vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Sandy Alcantara UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB props column why Alcantara is hard to trust in this market given his slow start to 2025: 

It’s been a rough return from Tommy John surgery for Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, and I expect him to struggle against the Cincinnati Reds (11th in OPS) on Wednesday afternoon.

Alcantara has a 7.27 ERA this season, and he’s failed to record more than 17 outs in a single start this season. In fact, the Marlins ace was chased after just two innings in his last outing.

Miami has been careful with Alcantara’s pitch count this season, allowing him to throw 90 pitches just one time (91), and I have a hard time seeing him getting through six innings if that continues. 

The Reds are far from a pushover on offense this season, as they rank fifth in MLB in runs scored and 12th in hits. 

Reds vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

This game seems to be priced on what Alcantara can be as a starter, but he’s been anything but that this season.

As I mentioned in my prop pick above, Alcantara has struggled to pitch deep into games, and he’s allowed 14 hits and 10 walks in less than 18 innings of work in the 2025 campaign. 

That’s not going to bode well against a solid Cincy offense, especially since the Marlins don’t have the advantage in the bullpen in this game either. Miami has a 4.28 team ERA out of the ‘pen while the Reds are currently sitting at 3.59.

Singer has not been great – he’s allowed at least three runs in each of his last three outings – but he also has kept the Reds in every game, hence the 3-1 record when he’s on the mound.

Even though Miami took the first two games of this series, I’m not buying it to pull off the sweep with Alcantara struggling to start 2025. 

Pick: Reds Moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)

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