Reds vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, July 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Cincinnati Reds-Philadelphia Phillies matchup on Sunday, July 6.

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler is a great prop target on July 6. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds face off on Sunday afternoon in the rubber match of their three-game set on this holiday weekend.

Philly won the second game of this series on Saturday, and it’s favored at home in Game 3 with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound.

Wheeler has been lights out all season,and he’ll take on a young starter and one of Cincy’s top prospects in Chase Burns. After a decent debut against the New York Yankees, Burns only recorded one out in his second start against the Boston Red Sox, skyrocketing his ERA to 13.50 in the 2025 season.

Can he bounce back against a surging Philadelphia squad that is looking to hold onto the top spot in the NL East?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Sunday’s action. 

Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Reds +1.5 (+100)
• Phillies -1.5 (-122)

Moneyline 

• Reds: +200
• Phillies: -250

Total

• 8.5 (Over -119/Under -102)

Reds vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Cincinnati: Chase Burns (0-1, 13.50 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (8-3, 2.27 ERA)

Reds vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 6
• Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS-PH, FDSOH
• Reds record: 46-43
• Phillies record: 52-37

Reds vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Zack Wheeler UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why Wheeler could be in line for another shut down performance: 

Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 2.27 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP.

He’s allowed four or fewer hits in 11 of his 17 outings this season, and while he failed to clear this prop in his last start, he gave up just six hits in eight scoreless innings of work.

Wheeler has allowed four or fewer hits in nine of his 10 starts since May 1, and he should be able to slow down a Cincinnati Reds offense that ranks 15th in MLB in hits and 14th in batting average in 2025.

Reds vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

While I don’t think that Burns is as bad as his second outing against Boston showed, it was still concerning to say the least. 

The young righty allowed five hits, seven runs (five earned) and a pair of walks while recording just one out. Now, he has to duel with one of the game’s best starters, as Wheeler has a 2.27 ERA and has led the Phillies to a 12-5 record in his 17 starts.

In Wheeler’s outings, the Phillies have nine wins by two or more runs, which bodes well for their chances of covering the run line in this game.

Wheeler has not allowed more than one earned run in a start since the beginning of June, and he has 14 outings with two or fewer earned runs this season.

The Phillies rank ninth in MLB in OPs, sixth in batting average and 11th in runs scored. I think Burns could be in trouble for the second straight outing, so I’ll back the Phillies to cover again with their ace on the hill. 

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-122 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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