Reds vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 30

Sean Treppedi | Jun 30, 2025

Garrett Crochet heads into another home matchup with momentum against a rookie pitcher. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox open a three-game interleague series on Monday, with Cincinnati coming off a series win over the Padres and Boston having dropped two of three at home to the Blue Jays.

Cincinnati remains in the thick of the playoff race, sitting just 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot after a dramatic series win over the Padres, capped by a ninth-inning comeback on Sunday.

Boston is having a tough stretch, having lost seven of its last eight games, including a sweep by the Angels and a series loss to the Blue Jays. Now having sunk to fourth in the AL East, the Red Sox only continue to dig a deeper grave in a highly competitive division.

Garrett Crochet (7-4, 2.06 ERA) is the Sox’s biggest bright spot. He leads the team in innings and ranks third in MLB in ERA, with 135 strikeouts and just 31 walks. He’ll face the young Chase Burns (0-0, 5.40 ERA), who will make his second career start for the Reds after striking out eight and allowing three earned runs over five innings in his debut against the Yankees.

Here’s how I see the lines in Monday’s series opener.

Reds vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Reds +1.5 (-150)
• Red Sox -1.5 (+125)

Moneyline

• Reds (+144)
• Red Sox (-172)

Total

• Over 7.5 (-115)
• Under 7.5 (-105)

Reds vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• Reds: Chase Burns (0-0, 5.40 ERA)
• Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (7-4, 2.06 ERA)

Reds vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Monday, June 30, 2025
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): NESN, FDSN Ohio
• Reds Record: 44-40
• Red Sox Record: 41-44

Reds vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)

Crochet has been everything as advertised for the Red Sox. He leads the American League with 135 strikeouts in 109⅓ innings, averaging 11.1 K/9, and ranks among the league’s elite in strikeout rate — whiffing 37% of batters during their first trip through the order and 33% overall. Crochet has posted a 2.07 ERA over his last 10 starts and he recorded four double-digit strikeout performances during that stretch, including a 10-strikeout gem against the Angels in his most recent start. 

His stuff and command are working in sync right now — he's thrown first-pitch strikes at a 73% clip over his last two starts, which ranks in the 98th percentile across MLB. That ability to get ahead in the count has translated directly into more whiffs. Fenway Park also plays well for high-strikeout pitchers, and with a rookie on the mound for Cincinnati, there’s a good chance Boston controls the game, allowing Crochet to pitch deep. Then we have the Reds, a team that has consistently struggled against left-handed pitching.

Reds vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

This is a bet on starting pitching more than anything else. I don’t see a world where a rookie in his second career start goes ahead to challenge the Cy Young-caliber numbers that Crochet is posting right now. Cincinnati can’t hit effectively against southpaws either; it is batting a .219/.298/.348 and has only hit 17 home runs in contrast to the 74 against righties.

Burns may have posted a healthy eight strikeouts and 0 walks in five innings against the Yankees, but Fenway is an unforgiving park to inexperience and Crochet owns a 2.13 ERA there. Ironically, the Red Sox are an efficient offense, ranking top 10 in runs, hits and home runs.  

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+125 at FanDuel)

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