Reilly Opelka vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for US Open First Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the US Open match between Reilly Opelka and Carlos Alcaraz on Monday night.

Carlos Alcaraz is a massive favorite in Round 1. / Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz has one Grand Slam win under his belt in 2025, and he’s looking for a second at the US Open.

Alcaraz’s journey begins on Monday night, as he’ll take on American Reilly Opelka, who is 6-foot-11 and working his way back after missing a lot of the 2024 season to injury. Opelka played in the US Open in 2024 but was eliminated in the first round.

Alcaraz, who recently won the Cincinnati Open after Jannik Sinner retired in the final, won the US Open back in 2022. Can he begin a run to capture a second title in 2025?

The best betting sites have Alcaraz set as a massive favorite on Monday night, but he did have an early exit (second round) in the US Open in 2024. 

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s history at the US Open and my prediction for this first-round match. 

Reilly Opelka vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Reilly Opelka: +900
• Carlos Alcaraz: -1400

Total

• 34.5 (Over -125/Under -110)

Reilly Opelka vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 25
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Reilly Opelka US Open History

This is the fifth time in Opelka’s career that he’s played at the US Open, and he does have a fourth-round appearance under his belt from 2021. Opelka did not play in a Grand Slam in 2023 and only played in the US Open in 2024, but he’s gotten back to health in 2025.

He won his first-round match at the Australian Open, Wimbledon and French Open, but he did not advance beyond that point. 

This is a tough first-round match for the American, as Alcaraz has been on a dominant run so far in 2025. 

Carlos Alcaraz US Open History

Alcaraz won the US Open in 2022 and made the semifinals in 2023, but he fell short last year, losing in the second round.

In four US Open appearances, Alcaraz has at least made the quarterfinals three times. So, he has a pretty high ceiling when it comes to this tournament and should be a rightful favorite in this match.

In the three previous majors in 2025, Alcaraz has finished with a quarterfinal showing (Australian Open), win (French Open) and runner-up (Wimbledon).

Reilly Opelka vs. Carlos Alcaraz What the Odds Say and Prediction

Based on the latest odds (Alcaraz -1400), the Spaniard has a 93.33 percent chance to win against Opelka.

Even though the American’s size and ability to thrive with his serve should make Alcaraz have to work in this first-round match, it’s nearly impossible to bet against the No. 2 player in the world in a first-round match.

Opelka has dealt with health issues in the past, and while he’s returned to full strength in 2025, he has not made a deep run at any major.

There has to be a motivation factor for Alcaraz after an ugly second-round exit in last year’s US Open, and he has shown against the best server in the world (Sinner) that he can still win. So, Opelka shouldn’t be too big of a test in the first round.

I’ll take Alcaraz to cover the games spread (-6.5 at +110) in his first-round match.

Pick: Alcaraz -6.5 (+110 at DraftKings), Alcaraz to Win (-1400)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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