Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 16 Picks for Every Game

The Road to 272 Bets continues as Iain MacMillan breaks down his best bet for all 16 NFL Week 15 games.

Best bet for all 16 NFL Week 16 games. / Hendersonr: David Butler II-Imagn Images, Nix: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images, Jones: Alika Jenner/Getty Images, Young: Perry Knotts/Getty Images

The Road to 272 Bets was never going to be a profitable venture when I started doing it six years ago. Professional bettors don't bet on every single NFL game, but I had managed to put together some profitable seasons up until this point. Even the losing seasons weren't far off from being in the green. With that being said, I knew eventually I was going to have a disastrous year betting on every single game, and it's evident that Gamblor, the gambling god, has finally come knocking.

The 2025 edition of the challenge has been a failure, and each week only gets worse. The good news is that those who have gone against my picks are enjoying a nice boost to their bankroll. The other good news is we have just three weeks left, and then we'll start all over from scratch for the 2026 edition of the Road to 272 Bets. Still, before we can do that, we have to finish what we started in 2025.

Let's take a look at my picks for Week 16.

Road to 272 Bets Week 14 Record

• 6-10 (-2.74 units)

Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record

• 94-129-1 (-33.59 units)

NFL Week 16 Best Bets for Every Game

Rams vs. Seahawks Prediction

There's a strong argument to be made that the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are the two best teams in the NFL, but I'm going to lean toward the Rams winning on the road in what's set as a coin flip game. The Seahawks' offense has regressed in recent weeks, down to 12th in EPA per play and ninth in offensive DVOA. Let's also remember that Sam Darnold threw four interceptions in the first meeting between these two teams.

Until Darnold delivers in a big game, I have trouble betting on him in one. The Rams are the far more experienced team in this matchup, and their offense has been trending in the right direction, even with Davante Adams sidelined.

Pick: Rams -110 via FanDuel

Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction

The Eagles have been trending in the right direction, and it finally showed through with a dominant win against the Raiders. Over each team's last three games, the Eagles lead the league in Net Yards per Play at +1.9, despite being just 1-2 in that stretch. Their defense has turned into one of the most dominant units in the NFL, and the offense found its stride this past week.

Now, their offense gets another favorable matchup, facing one of the worst defenses in the league. They have allowed 6.1 yards per play, which is the second most in the NFL, while also ranking 31st in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate. I expect a similar final score to what we saw from the Eagles against the Raiders this past week.

Pick: Eagles -6 (-102) via Caesars

Packers vs. Bears Prediction

I may have been wrong about the Bears being as bad as I thought they were, and their underlying metrics have trended heavily in the right direction. With that being said, I still don't think they're good enough to be listed as just 1.5-point underdogs against the Packers in this spot.

If you exclude plays that resulted in turnovers, the Bears' defense ranks just 28th in the league in opponent EPA per play and 26th in opponent success rate. Chicago has managed to sport an average turnover differential of +1.4 per game, which is simply unsustainable moving forward. If they stop being on the right side of the turnover differential every game, then we're going to see some significant regression from them.

I trust the team with far better numbers up and down the board. Let's also remember that when the Packers beat the Bears two weeks ago, they averaged 6.5 yards per play while the Bears averaged just 4.6. That was a dominant performance by the Packers that didn't show up in the final box score.

Pick: Packers -1.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Bengals vs. Dolphins Prediction

Hidden in the stretch of the Dolphins' recent wins against bad offenses is how bad the Miami defense is. They rank in the bottom 10 in almost every single defensive metric, including allowing teams to average 6.8 yards per pass attempt while ranking 23rd in opponent dropback EPA and 29th in opponent dropback success rate.

The Bengals may be out of the mix, but Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase will still be on the field, and that's enough to torch the Dolphins' defense. Does Tua Tagovailoa have enough to keep pace with the Cincinnati offense? I don't think so.

Pick: Bengals +102 via DraftKings

Chiefs vs. Titans Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs are eliminated from postseason contention, and Patrick Mahomes is sidelined with an injury. I don't think that's enough for me to think the Chiefs are deserving of being just 3-point favorites against the worst team in the league. Gardner Minshew will get the start at quarterback for the Chiefs, and he's more than a capable backup. The Chiefs still have enough skill on both sides of the ball to overpower the Titans in this one.

I'd need a lot more than a Mahomes injury to convince me the Titans can keep this game within a field goal.

Pick: Chiefs -3 (-113) via Caesars

Vikings vs. Giants Prediction

Credit to J.J. McCarthy, who has had his two best performances the past two weeks. He has thrown for a combined 413 yards for five touchdowns and one interception. Now he gets to face yet another bad defense in the Giants, who rank in the bottom 10 in most metrics, including being the worst run defense in the NFL, which will be great for the Vikings, who love to utilize their running game to help support their quarterback.

The Vikings' defense will be able to attack the Giants' offense and put pressure on rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who will struggle to move the ball down the field. I'll lay the 2.5 point on Minnesota.

Pick: Vikings -2.5 (-118) via BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction

Not enough people have fully accepted how bad the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are right now. Heading into Week 16, they rank 29th in net yards per play (-0.8), 26th in success rate, and 21st in opponent success rate. The Panthers outrank them in all three of their categories, and now they're getting a field goal's worth of points on the home field.

Lost in all this has been how truly bad Baker Mayfield has played in the second half of the season. Of quarterbacks with 100+ throws since Week 8, Baker Mayfield ranks 33rd in quarterback efficiency, ranking only above J.J. McCarthy and Shedeur Sanders in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected. Now, you want me to lay a field goal on him on the road? Not a chance.

Remember when Baker Mayfield was an MVP candidate early in the season?

He's been a bottom 3 quarterback since Week 8. Only McCarthy and Sanders rank worse. pic.twitter.com/7oEOtHVW9x

— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) December 15, 2025

Pick: Panthers +3 (-112) via DraftKings

Jets vs. Saints Prediction

The Jets have been a disaster, while the Saints have played some promising football of late. Not only is their defense a solid unit, one that can stop the run effectively, but their rookie quarterback, Tyler Shough, has shown some flashes of decent play. Shough has completed 66.7% of his passes for 185.5 yards per game and six touchdowns. He has also been effective running the football, which is a nice weapon to have at that position.

The Jets have no quarterback, and the rest of the team has seemingly mailed it in this season. The Saints' defense alone is enough to convince me to lay the points with New Orleans in this one.

Pick: Saints -4 (-113) via Caesars

Chargers vs. Cowboys Prediction

The Chargers are on a win streak, but it's not because of their offense. In fact, their defense has turned into an elite unit. They now rank ninth in defensive DVOA, fourth in opponent EPA per play, and sixth in opponent success rate, but more importantly, they rank inside the top five of every pass defense metric, which is how you shut down the Cowboys' offense.

The Chargers offense is 19th in points per game at 22.5, while also scoring just 16.0 points per game. Cowboys aside, a game involving an elite defense and an offense that has struggled shouldn't have a game with a total of almost in the 50s. I'll take the UNDER in this one and hope the Cowboys' defense doesn't melt in front of our eyes.

Pick: Chargers/Cowboys UNDER 49.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Bills vs. Browns Prediction

The Browns' run defense has arguably been the best in the NFL this season. They rank third in opponent rush EPA and first in opponent success rate, and are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. If that holds true in this game, they have a chance to keep things close with the Bills. 41.58% of the Bills' offensive yards come from running the football, the fourth most in the NFL. If they struggle to get the ball moving on the ground in Cleveland, the Browns may be in this game longer than people expect.

I also struggle to lay this many points on a Bills team whose defense has been bad all season long, ranking 23rd in both defensive DVOA and opponent yards per play, allowing 5.6 yards per snap.

Pick: Browns +10 (+100) via Caesars

Falcons vs. Cardinals Prediction

Even though they're already eliminated from the playoffs, I'm back in the Falcons. Atlanta is better than its record indicates, ranking 10th in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.3, which is sandwiched between the Texans and Ravens. They should be in a great spot to beat a Cardinals team that is 24th in both Net Yards per Play and DVOA.

Kirk Cousins still has something to prove in these final three games if he wants to be in a starting role in Atlanta, or elsewhere, next season. He has found his stride the past two weeks and has found success even without Drake London.

I'll lay the 2.5 points on the Falcons.

Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-105) via Caesars

Jaguars vs. Broncos Prediction

This game is a showdown between two teams that I have been claiming for a while aren't as good as their record indicates. While both teams have proven me wrong, I believe in the Broncos more than the Jaguars. Denver has been a fantastic team at home with a net yards per play of +1.1. They're also fourth in overall net yards per play, and their elite secondary is going to cause Trevor Lawrence fits.

Lawrence has had a roller coaster season, but now he has his toughest matchup he's had all season. The Jaguars' offense is 14th in DVOA and now has to face a strong Broncos' defense on its home field.

One of these two teams will come crashing back down to earth, and I think it's going to be the Jaguars.

Pick: Broncos -3 (-105) via DraftKings

Steelers vs. Lions Prediction

It's do-or-die time for the Lions, and while they're on the outside looking in for the playoffs heading into this week, I still have a lot of faith in this Detroit squad. The Lions are third in the NFL in overall DVOA, fifth in net yards per play, and seventh in EPA per play. They've stumbled when facing elite teams this season, but they can overwhelm teams that aren't on their level, and I think the Steelers are one of those teams.

Not that the Steelers are a bad team, but they're not great in any areas either, largely average across the board. Aaron Rodgers doesn't have the arm or the weapons to take advantage of the Lions' biggest weakness, which is their banged-up secondary.

Pick: Lions -7 (-105) via DraftKings

Raiders vs. Texans Prediction

I understand that there's an argument that the Raiders are the worst team in the NFL, and they're taking on a red-hot Houston Texans team, which has the best defense in the league. With that being said, a 14.5-point spread in the NFL is insane. That means the Texans have to win by MORE than two touchdowns to cover this spread.

Is the Texans' offense good enough for us to lay this many points on them? Houston is 22nd in offensive DVOA, 18th in EPA per play, and 29th in success rate. Scoring 40 points against the Cardinals isn't enough to convince me they're going to steamroll a Raiders' defense that has actually been pretty solid this season. I'll begrudgingly take the 14.5 points with Las Vegas.

Pick: Raiders +14.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Patriots vs. Ravens Prediction

The Patriots' defense has some major issues that were exposed against the Bills this past weekend. With that being said, they're still an elite offense, and Drake Maye has been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL this season. I'm a bit surprised they're set as 2.5-point underdogs against a Ravens team that continues to underwhelm. Sure, they beat up on a spiraling Bengals team last week, but the Patriots are several steps above Cincinnati in class.

The Ravens are 14th in overall DVOA, 19th in EPA per play, and 14th in opponent EPA per play. Let's stop treating the Ravens like they're an elite team that has just suffered from some bad luck this season. They're an above-average team at best, and the Patriots will be able to hang with them.

Pick: Patriots +2.5 (+102) via Caesars

49ers vs. Colts Prediction

Philip Rivers is back in action, and while he may not have looked like his old gunslinger self, he's still extremely smart and will make very few mistakes. People are also quick to forget that he had to face one of the best defenses in the NFL in his first game since 2021. Now, he has a much easier matchup ahead of them against the injured 49ers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL, especially when it comes to stopping the run.

Daniel Jones' injury didn't break this Colts team. The Colts still rank fourth in overall DVOA and sixth in Net Yards per Play. It could also be time to sell high on this 49ers team. Don't be surprised if Indianapolis pulls off this upset and keeps its playoff hopes alive.

Pick: Colts +225 via BetMGM

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