Royals vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 23

The Cubs are favored in their series finale against Kansas City.

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea is a solid prop target on Wednesday. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Tuesday night’s win over the Kansas City Royals pushed the Chicago Cubs back into first place in the NL Central, and they’ll look to hold onto that spot as home favorites on Wednesday in their series finale.

Chicago has starter Colin Rea (3.80 ERA) on the mound for the fourth time this month, and in 2- appearances this season, Rea has led the Cubs to a 15-5 record. He’ll be opposed by Seth Lugo (2.94 ERA), who is coming off a rough outing against the Miami Marlins in his first start out of the All-Star break.

Chicago won Tuesday’s matchup 6-0, but it allowed 12 runs to the Royals in the series opener. Even though Kansas City is 29th in MLB in runs scored this season, oddsmakers have set the total for this afternoon matchup at 10.5 runs.

I have a play for the total, as well as my favorite player prop for Wednesday’s matchup. Let’s break down both picks!

Royals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Royals +1.5 (-157)
• Cubs -1.5 (+129)

Moneyline

• Royals: +123
• Cubs: -149

Total

• 10.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Royals vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• Kansas City: Seth Lugo (6-5, 2.94 ERA)
• Chicago: Colin Rea (8-3, 3.80 ERA)

Royals vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 23
• Time: 2:20 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): MARQ, FDSKC
• Royals record: 49-53
• Cubs record: 60-41

Royals vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Colin Rea UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105)

Rea has allowed just nine hits in three starts in the month of July, and he’s given up five or fewer hits in six of his eight outings since June 1.

Kansas City is just 19th in MLB in batting average and 17th in hits this season, and it was shut out in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday. Based on the total in this game, oddsmakers seem to think that the Royals will get to the Cubs’ pitching staff at some point.

However, Kansas City’s 12-run showing in Game 1 may have been an anomaly. With Rea pitching the best he has all season as of late, I’ll take the plus money on the UNDER on his hits allowed prop. 

Royals vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Even though the Cubs have one of the best offenses in the league, there is a trend I can’t look past.

60.4 percent of the Royals’ games have hit the UNDER this season, and now we’re getting a total juiced all the way to 10.5 runs on Wednesday.

Rea has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three starts, and I expect him to keep the Royals in check since they rank 19th in MLB in batting average and just 26th in OPS this season.

Meanwhile, Lugo has been pretty solid in 2025 despite a shaky outing against Miami. He’s allowed more than three earned runs in just three of his 18 starts, the Royals have combined for 10 or fewer runs in 15 of his 18 outings.

This total is set way too high when one of the teams involved has hit the under in well over half of its games this season. 

Pick: UNDER 10.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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