Royals vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 5

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Kansas City Royals-Boston Red Sox matchup on Tuesday night.

The Boston Red Sox are 15-7 when starting pitcher Garrett Crochet is on the mound this season. / Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox have taken the top spot in the AL wild card race, and they’re looking to add to their six-game winning streak on Tuesday night against the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals enter this game at 56-57, and while they’re a long shot to make the playoffs in the AL, crazier things have happened over the final weeks of a regular season.

Boston has ace Garret Crochet (2.23 ERA) on the mound against a newcomer in Ryan Bergert, who was a part of the San Diego Padres’ package that they sent the Royals for catcher Freddie Fermin.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Tuesday night’s AL battle. 

Royals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Royals +1.5 (-105)
• Red Sox -1.5 (-116)

Moneyline

• Royals: +200
• Red Sox: -250

Total

• 8 (Over -102/Under -120)

Royals vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• Kansas City: Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.78 ERA)
• Boston: Garrett Crochet (12-4, 2.23 ERA)

Royals vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 5
• Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): NESN, FDSKC
• Royals record: 56-57
• Red Sox record: 63-51

Royals vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Garrett Crochet UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)

This may seem like a crazy prop to take since Crochet ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage this season, but the Royals are the No. 2 team in MLB in K’s per game.

Kansas City averages just 6.86 strikeouts per game this season, and that number doesn’t rise much on the road (7.16).

While Crochet is a dominant strikeout pitcher (175 K’s in 141.1 innings), he does have nine starts (out of 22) with seven or fewer punchouts this season. Now, he did strike out nine Royals in seven innings earlier in 2025, but I think this prop is a little too rich considering KC’s ability to avoid the strikeout this season. 

Royals vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

During this six-game winning streak, Boston has five wins by two or more runs, and it has moved to an impressive 61-53 on the run line in 2025.

With Crochet on the mound, Boston is a pretty easy bet – in my eyes – against a young starter like Bergert. Crochet has led the Red Sox to a 15-7 record in his 22 starts, and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four straight outings (every start he made in July).

On top of that, Boston has won by two or more runs in 12 of the 15 games it has won with Crochet starting.

Bergert pitched well with San Diego before being traded, posting a sub-3.00 ERA, but his advanced numbers show a much different story. He posted a 4.46 expected ERA in San Diego and ranked in the bottom half amongst MLB pitchers in expected batting average against.

With Boston’s offense ranking eighth in OPS and fifth in runs scored over the last 15 days, I think it’s an easy bet against a Royals team that has scored the second-fewest runs in MLB this season. 

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-116 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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