Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Sam Houston-New Mexico State matchup in Week 6 of the college football season.

New Mexico State and quarterback Logan Fife are underdogs in Week 6. / Jaime Guzman/Special to the Sun-News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Sam Houston Bearkats are searching for their first win of the 2025 college football season, as they sit at 0-4 heading into their Week 6 matchup with the New Mexico State Aggies.

New Mexico State is 2-2 in the 2025 season, knocking off Bryant and Tulsa to open the season, but it has lost back-to-back games heading into this battle on Thursday night.

Sam Houston has had some tough tests early in 2025, including a 55-0 loss to then-No. 8 Texas back on Sept. 20. After a week off, the Bearkats actually find themselves as favorites in Week 6 against the Aggies.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for Thursday’s standalone matchup in college football. 

Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Sam Houston -2.5 (-110)
• New Mexico State +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Sam Houston: -135
• New Mexico State: +114

Total

• 52.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 2
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBSSB
• Sam Houston record: 0-4
• New Mexico State record: 2-2

Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Key Player to Watch

Donovan Faupel, Wide Receiver, New Mexico State

The junior wideout is arguably the most dynamic offensive player in this game, as he leads the Aggies in receptions (19), receiving yards (274) and has one touchdown. 

New Mexico State quarterback Logan Fife has only completed 54.1 percent of his passes this season, but he has thrown for 1,017 yards. There should be plenty of targets coming Faupel’s way against a Bearkats defense that is 133rd in the country in EPA/Pass. 

Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Pick

Are the Aggies undervalued at home in this matchup?

Sam Houston has done nothing all season to prove that it should be favored in a game, losing by 17 three times and 55 to Texas. The Bearkats rank outside the top 100 in EPA/Play on offense and defense, plus they are outside the top 100 in success rate on both sides of the ball as well.

The Aggies do have a stout run defense – 16th in the country in EPA/Rush – and that should make things tough on a Sam Houston team that has thrown for just 641 yards and four picks this season. 

The Bearkats do not have a reliable passing game, so it’s shocking to see them favored on the road against an elite run defense. 

New Mexico State has lost badly in back-to-back games, but Fife has shown that he can move the offense, even if he’s inefficient. Against a weak Bearkats defense (Sam Houston has allowed 37 or more points in every game), I expect the Aggies to be able to put something on the board.

I’ll take the points with the home underdog on Thursday. 

Pick: New Mexico State +2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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