Saquon Barkley's Rushing Yards Total is Too High for NFC Championship

Iain MacMillan | Jan 24, 2025

Bet the UNDER on Saquon Barkley's rushing yards total in the NFC Championship / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders are set to face off in a rubber match in the NFC Championship.

The two teams split their regular season series but now this Sunday's game is for all the marbles as the winner will be crowned champions of the NFC and will advance to Super Bowl 59 to take on the winner of the Bills and Chiefs.

If the Eagles want to win, they need to continue to lean on Saquon Barkely, who has had a historic season at the running back position. Even with that being true, I'm here to make the case for betting against Barkley on Sunday.

Saquon Barkley Rush Yards Total vs. Commanders

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• OVER 131.5 Rush Yards (-115)
• UNDER 131.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Fade Saquon Barkley in NFC Championship

In this week's edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59", I broke down why I'm betting the UNDER on Barkley's rushing yards total.

This isn't necessarily a bet on Barkley to have a bad game, but a rushing yards total of 131.5 for a single game is virtually unheard of in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley's rushing prop is as high as O/U 131.5 yards this week against the Commanders.

I'm pretty sure this is the highest rushing line for a RB in the NFL, ever.

His 2 games against the Commanders:
- 29 carries for 150 yards & 2 TDs
- 26 carries for 146 yards & 2 TDs

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) January 21, 2025

Despite Barkley going over this number in both games against the Commanders this season, I think the UNDER is the play here. As bettors, we need to think it terms of probability and if you believe there's an over 50% chance Barkley gains over 131.5 rushing yards on Sunday, I'd have to disagree with you.

The Commanders' primary defensive gameplan should be to stack the box and force the Eagles to rely on their passing game, an area they've struggled in this season. It's also worth noting that if the Commanders offense comes out as hot as they have in their previous to playoff games, Philadelphia may be forced to abandon the run to keep pace with the Washington offense.

It's not the most fun to cheer for, but from a betting perspective, it's the right side to be on.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!