South Florida vs. North Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the South Florida-North Texas matchup in Week 7 of the college football season.

The South Florida Bulls are underdogs in Week 7. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The No. 24 South Florida Bulls are looking to continue their impressive 2025 season in an AAC matchup with the North Texas Mean Green in Week 7. 

North Texas has yet to lose a game this season, ranking 18th in the country in Net EPA/Play after beating Lamar, Western Michigan, Washington State, Army and South Alabama to open the campaign. 

The Mean Green are coming off a bye, while South Florida dominated Charlotte in Week 6, moving back into the top-25 in the country in the process. South Florida’s only loss came against an undefeated Miami team, and it has wins over Florida and Boise State in 2025.

Can it pull off an upset as a small underdog on Friday? 

Here’s a look at the latest odds, players to watch and my prediction for this AAC battle. 

South Florida vs. North Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• South Florida +1.5 (-110)
• North Texas -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• South Florida: -102
• North Texas: -118

Total

• 67.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

South Florida vs. North Texas How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Oct. 10
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: DATCU Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• South Florida record: 4-1
• North Texas record: 5-0

South Florida vs. North Texas Key Players to Watch

Drew Mestemaker, Quarterback, North Texas

If North Texas is going to win this game, it’s going to rely heavily on the arm of Mestemaker, who leads the AAC in passing efficiency rating and adjusted yards gained per pass attempt. Through five games, Mestemaker has 1,247 passing yards, 11 scores and has not thrown a single interception.

This is a tough matchup with a South Florida defense that is 25th in the country in EPA/Play and allowing just 246.6 passing yards per game despite playing three games against ranked opponents to open the season.

Mestemaker and the Mean Green are 27th in the country in EPA/Pass on offense, and they also have an impressive running game, ranking sixth in success rate on rush plays. 

North Texas’ path to winning this game is scoring a ton of points, and the high total (67.5) suggests that we’ll see a shootout on Friday night. 

South Florida vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick

I don’t want to take anything away from North Texas’ 5-0 start, but the team has played an extremely soft schedule to get there.

According to ESPN, North Texas ranks 132nd out of 136 FBS programs in schedule strength, while the Bulls are 26th. So, South Florida’s 4-1 mark is a lot more impressive than North Texas’ 5-0 start.

While the Mean Green have been elite on offense, they are running into a Bulls defense that allowed just seven points to Boise State and 16 to Florida to open the season. In fact, South Florida is 25th in the country in defensive EPA/Play.

North Texas’ offensive numbers may be inflated by playing some weak opponents, and while it can move the ball both through the air and on the ground, I’m not sold on this defense holding up.

The Mean Green are 127th in the country in third/fourth down success rate on defense, and I think they’ll have a hard time slowing down a South Florida team that is averaging 446.0 total yards of offense per game despite playing one of the tougher schedules in the country to open this season.

I’ll take the points with the Bulls in this early-week battle. 

Pick: South Florida +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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