Southwest Division Odds for 2025-26 NBA Season (Houston Holds Lead Over San Antonio)

Houston's new big three could be a problem.

Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets are favored to win the Southwest Division in 2025-26. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

It’s very unlikely that a team not from Texas will win the Southwest Division in 2025-26, but the Houston Rockets are ahead of the rest of the pack. The Rockets are -210 favorites at FanDuel and are trailed by the San Antonio Spurs. The Dallas Mavericks are third on the odds leaderboard.

The Rockets won the division last season and arguably improved by adding Kevin Durant via trade over the offseason. Fred VanVleet’s untimely ACL tear will hurt Houston’s chances, but not enough to prevent the team from being labeled a clear preseason frontrunner. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds and a breakdown for every team in the Southwest Division ahead of the 2025-26 campaign. 

Southwest Division Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Houston Rockets : -210
• San Antonio Spurs: +420
• Dallas Mavericks: +850
• Memphis Grizzlies: +1100
• New Orleans Pelicans: +6000

Houston’s implied probability to win the division is 67.74 percent as the odds-on favorite.

Victor Wembanyama’s return from a season-ending blood clot concern could help the Spurs make a significant improvement from last year’s fourth-place finish in the division.

Houston Rockets

Not many teams were as well-rounded as Houston last season. The Rockets’ growth on defense in 2024-25 helped drive their move to the top of the Western Conference, as only five teams gave up fewer points per game (109.8). Houston also boasted a borderline top-10 offense last year, but some key changes could affect both sides of the ball.

A healthy Durant instantly makes any team’s offense more lethal, as he’s long been one of the NBA’s most productive and efficient first options. VanVleet’s basketball IQ will be missed on defense and Dillon Brooks did provide a certain edge with his grit before being traded to the Phoenix Suns.

There are some question marks regarding the growth of some unproven role players for the Rockets, but Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson are easily the best big three in the division.

San Antonio Spurs

Everyone is waiting for the Spurs to become a playoff team. Wembanyama has been heralded as one of basketball’s most unique talents of all time since he entered the NBA, but he’s yet to lead his team to the postseason. Now he has more help than he’s ever had.

San Antonio aimed to get their point guard of the future when it traded for De’Aaron Fox. He’ll pair with 2025 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle in the backcourt. Devin Vassell and newly-drafted Dylan Harper will be key pieces too, but all four of the players mentioned are dealing with injuries in training camp that could limit their availability early in the year.

Wemby is a world class centerpiece for the team, but right now the Spurs just seem like a team with potential and no results.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks stumbled into the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and selected Cooper Flagg after trading Luka Doncic last season, but they still have plenty of work to do.

Kyrie Irving will be out until at least the beginning of next year with a torn ACL, so Anthony Davis will be the clear number one option for the first time since his days with the Pelicans. Klay Thompson tallied his lowest scoring average (14.0) since his rookie year last season and D’Angelo Russell has become a journeyman with his third team in four seasons. 

Dallas arguably has better depth than San Antonio and has a real chance to finish second in the Southwest with its new defensive-minded squad.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies looked like one of the NBA’s most promising young teams a few years ago but have fallen by the wayside. Health issues have remained a problem and Memphis shipped off a key piece in Desmond Bane over the offseason. His absence will make future injuries to Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. even more devastating.

Morant has missed at least 15 games in all six of his NBA seasons and Jackson is no stranger to long-term injuries. Even if both are healthy in 2025-26, Memphis could have to rely on Santi Aldama or Jaylen Wells as its third option throughout the season.

There’s no positive sign that points to growth for Memphis right now. That’s why it is rightfully so low on the odds leaderboard.

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans gave up on last year’s version of the Pelicans. CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are gone, so it appears like the team will have to be all in on Zion Williamson after he failed to play in more than 30 games for the third time in five seasons in 2024-25.

Jordan Poole will join Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones after his underwhelming stint with the Washington Wizards. That group could be more enticing than the Grizzlies’ starters.

Nobody is expecting New Orleans to suddenly succeed, but its rebuild could yield some interesting results if the slimmer Williamson that showed up to media day is able to make it through most of the year.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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