St. John's vs. Villanova Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Feb. 12

Reed Wallach | Feb 11, 2025

Feb 1, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Villanova Wildcats forward Eric Dixon (43) drives against Creighton Bluejays forward Jasen Green (0) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

St. John’s winning streak continued on Friday night, beating UConn on the road to make it 10 in a row for the Red Storm. 

At the top of the Big East standings, can the Johnnie’s hold up on the road against Villanova, one of the best offenses in the country? The team is a slight road favorite, but how does this matchup set up for both teams after the Red Storm won at Madison Square Garden about a month ago by 12 against the Wildcats? 

Let’s break it down below!

St. John’s vs. Villanova Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• St. John’s: -2.5 (-115)
• Villanova: +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• St. John’s: +188
• Villanova: -230

Total: 147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

St. John’s vs. Villanova How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, February 12th
• Game Time: 6:00 PM EST
• Venue: The William B. Finneran Pavilion
• How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
• St. John’s Record: 21-3
• Villanova Record: 14-10

St. John’s vs. Villanova Key Players to Watch

St. John’s

RJ Luis: The junior forward overwhelmed UConn last Friday, scoring 21 points on 10-of-21 shooting while grabbing seven rebounds. A brute to handle around the rim, Luis has been the most consistent threat for the St. John’s offense that goes through plenty of lulls on offense.

Villanova 

Eric Dixon: One of the most potent scorers in the country, leading the nation in scoring at nearly 24 points per game, Dixon will hope for a more effective showing against the vaunted Red Storm defense. The senior scored 18 points in the loss, shooting 31% from beyond the arc while also fouling out late. Always a threat, can Dixon have a big effort at home?

St. John’s vs. Villanova Prediction and Pick

St. John’s offense is always a point of concern, as noted here, but the defense is as good as there is, second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. 

However, I believe that Villanova can find success against the Red Storm defense, relative to expectations. St. John’s is vulnerable along the perimeter, and there are few more dangerous than the Villanova offense that runs a five-out scheme that ranks top 10 in three-point percentage. 

Villanova’s transition denial defense is also superb, which is needed against a St. John’s offense that is over-reliant on beating the opposition down the court and scoring before the defense is set. The team is 247th in effective field goal percentage and is reliant on getting to the rim as it can’t shoot from the perimeter at all (346th in three-point percentage on the 17th lowest rate, per KenPom). 

However, Villanova’s compact defense may cause issues. The defense allows the 19th-highest three-point rate and the team is elite on the glass, second in Big East defensive rebounding rate. 

If the Wildcats can slow this game to a crawl, I trust them to execute in the halfcourt and score a minor upset, but I’m more than willing to grab the home underdogs at underdogs of more than a bucket. 

PICK: Villanova +2.5 (-105, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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