Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds and Pick for French Open Quarterfinal

Jun 2, 2024; Paris, France; Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match against Felix Auger-Aliassime of Canada on day eight of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 2, 2024; Paris, France; Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match against Felix Auger-Aliassime of Canada on day eight of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Two top 10 foes meet at Roland-Garros in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday evening. 

World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz has owned his career series against No. 9 Stefanos Tsitsipas, winning all five matches against his Greek opponent in his career. Can the Spanish phenom continue his excellence on clay in hopes of pushing closer to winning his first French Open title? 

Here are the odds and our best bet for the Tuesday quarterfinal matchup: 

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Tsitsipas : +5.5 (-106)
  • Alcaraz: -5.5 (-126)

Moneyline

  • Tsitsipas: +330
  • Alcaraz: -430

Total: 36.5 (Over -112/Under -118)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and Pick

Both players have been lightly tested during this Grand Slam tournament, but it’s tough to look past the historical results and see that Alcaraz is a justified favorite, winning all five matches, including last year in this same situation. 

In the 2023 French Open, Alcaraz beat Tsitsipas 3-0 (6-2, 6-1, 7-6) to advance to the semifinals. While Alcaraz has dealt with some injury issues this year in the lead-up to Roland-Garros, there is still a gap between the two and I believe the Spaniard is well-equipped to handle his opponent. 

Alcaraz has made his first serve at 67% or higher in all four matches thus far, making it hard for any opponent to generate much traction while returning and hoping to get breakpoints. Further, given Alcaraz’s ability on clay to return, he has broken 35% of opponent's games in 86 non-French Open clay matches in his career, I trust him to cash in on more opportunities throughout the match. 

Tsitsipas hasn’t proven to be able to compete with Alcaraz in the past, and while fitness concerns were an issue at the start of the tournament, I’m confident that the former No. 1 in the world can win in straight sets to get to the semis. 

PICK: Alcaraz 3-0 (+145)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.


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Reed Wallach

REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.