Storm vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Playoffs Game 3

The Aces are favored to win Game 3 at home.

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson is a great prop target on Thursday. / Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Aces’ wild 17-game winning streak came to an end on Tuesday night, as they lost as road favorites in Game 2 of the first round against the Seattle Storm.

Seattle forced a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday with the win, and now Thursday’s winner will advance to the WNBA semifinals.

Las Vegas has been elite at home all season, going 17-5 there during the regular season, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Aces are favored by 7.5 points in Game 3.

Even though Las Vegas lost Game 2, it still put up 83 points and was in control before getting outscored by 11 in the fourth quarter.

A’ja Wilson and company will look to put that behind them to advance to the semis once again under head coach Becky Hammon.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 3.

Storm vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Storm +7.5 (-105)
• Aces -7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Storm: +280
• Aces: -355

Total

• 159.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Storm vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 18
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Series: Tied 1-1

Storm vs. Aces Injury Reports

Storm Injury Report

• Katie Lou Samuelson – out

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Storm vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bets

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

• A’ja Wilson OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-130)

After failing to clear her rebound prop in Game 1, Wilson responded with 13 boards in Game 2.

The Storm are an easy team to fade on the glass, as they ranked dead last in the WNBA in rebounding percentage during the regular season. Wilson now has games with 13, 12 and 14 boards in three of her last four meetings with Seattle.

She’s an easy target in Game 3, especially if the Storm aren’t blown out by 20-plus for the second time in this series. 

Storm vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking the Aces in a moneyline parlay with the Dream:

A collapse in the fourth quarter cost the Aces in Game 2, as they were outscored 25-14 to send this series to a winner-take-all Game 3.

I don’t expect Vegas to fall asleep again late, especially since the team went 17-5 at home in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs) and had a home net rating of +7.5.

Vegas thoroughly dominated the Storm in Game 1, and it took 15 Vegas turnovers (and 16 Seattle fast break points) for the Storm to pull off the upset at home in Game 2.

I’ll trust the Aces to build on their dominant home record in this game. Las Vegas hasn’t lost at home since Aug. 2. 

Las Vegas has been elite at home this season, and I’m not going to overreact to one three-point loss that was fed by a bad fourth quarter.

The Aces finished the regular season with the best net rating in the W over their last 15 games, and they blew out the Storm at home in Game 1. I expect them to roll in this matchup.  

Pick: Aces -7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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