Storm vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds and Best WNBA Prop Bets for Saturday, May 17

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Seattle Storm-Phoenix Mercury season opener on Saturday.

The Mercury are favored on Saturday in their season opener. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Phoenix Mercury have a new look entering the 2025 season, as they added Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to pair with Kahleah Copper in the offseason.

However, Mercury fans won’t have two familiar faces in the lineup, as Hall of Fame guard Diana Taurasi retired after the 2024 season and Brittney Griner signed with the Atlanta Dream.

Still, the additions of Thomas and Sabally make Phoenix one of the more dangerous teams in the W, and it’s favored on Saturday night against the Seattle Storm.

Seattle made a massive trade this offseason, moving Jewell Loyd in a three-team deal. Loyd is now with the Las Vegas Aces, but the Storm received the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft as part of the deal, taking French center Dominique Malonga.

Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins are back for another season, and Seattle could still find itself in the playoffs in 2025 without Loyd.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this season opener. 

Storm vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Storm +2 (-108)
• Mercury -2 (-112)

Moneyline

• Storm: +124
• Mercury: -148

Total

• 162.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Storm vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, May 17
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): WNBA League Pass
• Storm record: 0-0
• Mercury record: 0-0

Storm vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Storm Injury Report

• Katie Lou Samuelson – out
• Ezi Magbegor – game-time decision

Mercury Injury Report

• Kahleah Copper – game-time decision
• Alexa Held – game-time decision
• Monique Akoa Makani – game-time decision

Storm vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Storm Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Nneka Ogwumike OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-110)

In the 2023 season, Ogwumike averaged 8.8 rebounds per game, but she saw that number drop to 7.6 per game in 2024.

Still, I think she’s a solid bet to clear this prop against a new-look Phoenix team that lost Griner’s size in the frontcourt. The Mercury have a new roster, but they were dead last in the W in rebounding percentage in the 2024 season.

Ogwumike also had 20 games (out of 39, including playoffs) where she picked up eight or more boards in 2024.

Storm vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have new looks from last season, but I really love the addition of Sabally to the Mercury roster.

The former Dallas Wings star is one of the best scoring wings in the game, and I think she compliments Copper a lot better  than Taurasi and Griner did last season.

While there could be some growing pains for a team that had a lot of moves in the offseason, oddsmakers are buying Phoenix, setting it as the No. 5 choice to win the title at +1800, well ahead of the Storm (+3500) in that market.

While Diggins and Ogwumike are a tough duo to deal with, I’m not sold on this Storm team offensively with Loyd out of the picture and Katie Lou Samuelson (torn ACL) out for the season.

I lean with Phoenix to earn a win at home on Saturday night. 

Pick: Mercury Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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