TCU vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Iain MacMillan | Aug 29, 2025

The Bill Belichick era at UNC will begin on Monday night against TCU. / Rodd Baxley/The Fayetteville Observer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bill Belichick era for the UNC Tar Heels is set to begin! They'll host the TCU Horned Frogs on Monday night, which will serve as the final game of the loaded Week 1 slate.

The Belichick era at UNC has already dealt with some controversy surrounding his 24-year-old girlfriend, Jordon Hudson, and how much she was involved in the program's operations. Still, the show goes on, and Belichick's Tar Heels have a tough test ahead of them in their home opener.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for Monday night's showdown.

TCU vs. UNC Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• TCU -3.5 (-105)
• UNC +3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• TCU -152
• UNC +126

Total

• Over 56.5 (-105)
• Under 56.5 (-115)

TCU vs. UNC How to Watch

• Date: Monday, September 1
• Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kenan Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• TCU Record: 0-0
• UNC Record: 0-0

TCU vs. UNC Key Player to Watch

Josh Hoover, QB - TCU

Josh Hoover comes into his third year as the starting quarterback for the TCU Horned Frogs. He completed 66.5% of passes last season, throwing for 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Heading into this year, he's listed at +6500 to win the Heisman Trophy. This team will go as far as Hoover can take them.

TCU vs. UNC Prediction and Pick

The jury is still out on whether or not Belichick still has it in him to be the elite coach he once was, and coaching at the college level is a completely different set of circumstances than coaching in the NFL. I hesitate to back them until the Tar Heels can prove to be competitive this season, especially considering the amount of turnover they have on the team. The UNC defense lost its top four tacklers from last year, and its new coordinator is now Stephen Belichick, Bill's son.

Not only does UNC have a lot to prove, but the Tar Heels face a TCU team that has a lot of continuity from last year's team, which will work in their favor. Josh Hoover returns as their quarterback after a strong 2024 campaign, and Sonny Dykes is back as head coach for the fourth season.

There are just too many question marks surrounding this UNC team for me to back them in Week 1. I'll lay the points with the Horned Frogs.

Pick: TCU -3.5 (-105) via FanDuel

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