Texas Southern vs. Southern Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for Monday, Feb. 17

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the SWAC matchup between Southern and Texas Southern on Monday night.

Southern University Jaguars head coach Kevin Johnson has his team at a perfect 9-0 at home. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Monday night’s college basketball action features a huge battle in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), as the No. 1 Southern Jaguars (11-1 in conference play) take on the Texas Southern Tigers (8-4).

Texas Southern is in a three-way tie for the second-best record in the conference, and a road win against Southern would go a long way for its chances of avoiding the Jaguars until the SWAC title game with a chance to advance to the NCAA Tournament.

Oddsmakers have the Jaguars favored in this game, and rightfully so. 

These teams met back on Jan. 4, and Southern pulled out a nine-point win on the road. Plus, Texas Southern is in a bit of a slide right now, losing three of its last four conference games to fall back into fourth place. 

Can the Tigers right the ship on Monday? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this SWAC matchup. 

Texas Southern vs. Southern Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texas Southern +6.5 (-102)
• Southern -6.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Texas Southern: +235
• Southern: -290

Total

• 141.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Texas Southern vs. Southern How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Feb. 17
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: F.G. Clark Activity Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPNU/ESPN+
• Texas Southern record: 11-14
• Southern record: 16-9

Texas Southern vs. Southern Best College Basketball Prop Bets

Texas Southern Key Player to Watch

• Kavion McClain, Guard – 15.0 PPG, 4.6 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 SPG

McClain has suited up in every game for the Tigers this season and leads the SWAC in assists per game (4.6). However, he had one of his worst games of the season the last time these teams played.

McClain finished that game just 1-for-10 from the field and turned the ball over four times – dishing out just two assists. He needs to play at a higher level if Texas Southern wants to pull off the upset. 

Over his last eight games, McClain has been on fire, averaging 18.8 points, 5.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game, leading Texas Southern to a 5-3 record. 

Southern Key Player to Watch

• Jordan Johnson, Guard – 9.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.1 SPG

The amazing thing about this Southern team? 11 different players have earned a start this season and not a single player is averaging double figures.

Yet, the Jaguars are the best team in the SWAC. 

Johnson gets the nod for player to watch here after he dropped 20 points in the previous meeting against Texas Southern. The sophomore guard is the team’s second-leading scorer and averages the most shots per game (9.1) on the team.

However, he’s shooting just 33.3 percent from the field. If Johnson turns in another 20-point game against the Tigers, Southern is going to be tough to beat. 

Texas Southern vs. Southern Prediction and Pick

The SWAC has been an offensively challenged conference this season, as only one team (Alabama State) ranks inside the top-300 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

So, we should see a bit of a rock fight on Monday night. 

These teams combined for just 125 points in their first meeting this season, and the Jaguars would love another low-scoring game since they are the best defensive team in the conference (124th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency). 

However, I’m staying away from the total since these teams are 89th (Southern) and 60th (Texas Southern) in adjusted tempo. 

Instead, I’m eying the Jaguars to cover at home where they are a perfect 9-0 straight up this season.

Southern is projected to win this game by seven points by KenPom, and it outranks Texas Southern in offensive rating and defensive rating this season. On top of that, the Jaguars are in the top three in the conference in 3-point percentage, offensive efficiency, turnover percentage and more on offense in conference play. 

Texas Southern, on the other hand, ranks outside the top three in every key offensive category. After losing badly to Southern at home, I don’t see the Tigers covering on the road tonight. 

Pick: Southern -6.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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