Texas vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 8

Texas is favored by double digits in Week 8.

Can the Texas Longhorns and quarterback Arch Manning cover in Week 8? / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns are back in the top 25 at No. 21 after an upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 7. 

Now, they hit the road to play the 2-3 Kentucky Wildcats in Week 8, a must-win game if the Longhorns want a shot at making the College Football Playoff this season.

Arch Manning threw for just 166 yards and a score in Week 7, but he didn’t throw a pick on a day where the Texas defense picked off John Mateer three times. Now, the Longhorns are favored against a Wildcats team that has been blown out by South Carolina and Georgia in back-to-back games.

Does Texas have enough firepower to cover a double-digit spread on the road?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this SEC matchup. 

Texas vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas -12.5 (-108)
• Kentucky +12.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Texas: -455
• Kentucky: +350

Total

• 42.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Texas vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 18
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kroger Field
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Texas record: 4-2
• Kentucky record: 2-3

Texas vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Arch Manning, Quarterback, Texas

Manning has struggled in his first full season as the starter for Texas, completing just 63.0 percent of his passes for 1,317 yards, 12 scores and five picks. His numbers are a little inflated from some easy wins early in the season, as he’s failed to clear 200 passing yards against ranked opponents like Ohio State and Oklahoma.

Luckily for Manning and the Longhorns, this should be an easy matchup against a Kentucky team that has given up 30 or more points in all three of its SEC battles this season. 

The Wildcats are just 95th in the country in defensive success rate against the pass, and they’ve yet to win a conference game in 2025. 

This could be a perfect spot for Manning to gain some confidence heading into the final stretch of Texas’ loaded SEC schedule. 

Texas vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

The Longhorns have not been able to cover the spread at a high rate this season (just 2-4 against the number), but I think they’re worth a bet on the road in Week 8.

Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in the country, scoring just 27 total points over the last two weeks while ranking 126th in the country in EPA/Play. The Wildcats are averaging just 331.6 yards per game, and they really struggle throwing the ball (124th in offensive success rate on pass plays).

That’s going to be an issue against a Texas team that is No. 7 in the country in EPA/Rush on defense and No. 10 overall in EPA/Play. 

The Longhorns just held John Mateer and the Sooners to six points in Week 7, and they should be able to run things up against a Kentucky team that lost by 22 (allowing 35 points) to South Carolina earlier this season. The Gamecocks rank outside the top 100 in multiple offensive statistics this season, so the Longhorns should have no problem scoring the Wildcats in this one.

If there was ever a time to buy Texas this season, it’s now as it attempts to make a run for a College Football Playoff spot. 

Pick: Texas -12.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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