Texas vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 9

Iain MacMillan | Oct 24, 2025

Texas is a road favorite against Mississippi State is college football Week 9 action. / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

It's been a nightmarish season for the preseason National Championship favorite, the Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns are 5-2 to start the college football season, and now they hit the road to take on a tough Mississippi State that's 0-3 in SEC play, but with two of those losses being an overtime defeat at the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers and a two-point road loss against Florida.

Texas still has an outside shot of making the College Football Playoff, but it can ill-afford to suffer another loss. Can they get a win on Saturday? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

Texas vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas -6.5 (-124)
• Mississippi State +6.5 (+102)

Moneyline

• Texas -265
• Mississippi State +215

Total

• OVER 44.5 (-120)
• UNDER 44.5 (-102)

Texas vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 25
• Game Time: 4:15 pm ET
• Venue: Davis Wade Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Texas Record: 5-2 (2-1 SEC)
• Mississippi State Record: 4-3 (0-3 SEC)

Texas vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

• Texas is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games
• The UNDER is 6-2 in Texas' last eight games
• Texas is 12-2 straight up in its last 14 road games
• Mississippi State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games
• The UNDER is 6-2 in Mississippi State's last eight games
• Mississippi State has lost 10 straight SEC games

Texas vs. Mississippi State Key Player to Watch

• Arch Manning, QB - Texas Longhorns

If Texas wants to get hot and make a run at the College Football Playoff, the Longhorns need their star quarterback, Arch Manning, to improve his level of play. The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite has completed just 60.3% of passes for 1,449 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

Texas vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Mississippi State runs the ball on 56.63% of its plays, which is the 32nd-highest run play rate in college football. That means the Bulldogs are going to be in a tough spot when they face a strong run defense. Unfortunately for them, that's exactly the Longhorns' biggest strength.

Texas ranks fifth in opponent yards per carry, giving up just 2.6 yards per rush. It's also second in the country in opponent EPA per rush. That adds up to this being a terrible stylistic matchup for Mississippi State in this SEC matchup.

It's time to buy low on the Longhorns.

Pick: Texas -6.5 (-124) via FanDuel

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