Texas vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds and Key Players for SEC Tournament First Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Texas-Vanderbilt matchup in the first round of the SEC Tournament.

Vanderbilt is slightly favored over Texas on Wednesday. / Mark Zaleski/The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The 2025 SEC Tournament kicks off on Wednesday with the Texas Longhorns taking on the Vanderbilt Commodores in a 12-13 matchup in the first round. 

Neither of these teams is expected to win the tournament, but the Commodores (20-11) have a case to be an NCAA Tournament team this season. Vandy has five wins against top-teams, and it held its own in conference play, going 8-10 in the loaded SEC. 

Now, Vanderbilt finds itself as a slight favorite against a Texas team that it beat by eight points back on Feb. 8. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my game prediction for this first-round game in the SEC Tournament. 

Texas vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texas +1.5 (+100)
• Vanderbilt -1.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Texas: +114
• Vanderbilt: -135

Total

• 149.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Texas vs. Vanderbilt How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 12
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Texas record: 17-14 (6-12 SEC)
• Vanderbilt record: 20-11 (8-10 SEC)

Texas vs. Vanderbilt Key Players to Watch

Texas 

Tre Johnson: The freshman guard has been one of the best players in the SEC this season, averaging a league-high 20.2 points per game while shooting 43.4 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from beyond the arc. Johnson had 15 points, five rebounds and five dimes in the loss to Vandy earlier this season. 

Vanderbilt

A.J. Hoggard: A Michigan State transfer, Hoggard has started 29 of the 30 games that he’s appeared in and is averaging 9.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and a team-high 4.7 assists per game. The veteran guard’s presence could be big for the Commodores as they look up to pick up a few SEC Tournament wins to improve their case for the NCAA Tournament. 

Texas vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

These teams are pretty evenly matched, as evidenced by their rankings in KenPom this season. Texas clocks in at No. 46 and Vanderbilt clocks in at No. 45 ahead of Wednesday’s matchup.

The Commodores did handle the Longhorns (at home) earlier this season, but they did lose back-to-back games to Arkansas and Georgia to close SEC play – hurting their case to get an at-large bid if they don’t make a Cinderella run to win the conference. 

Still, Vanderbilt showcases an elite offense (25th in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite shooting just 32.9 percent from 3 as a team. The Commodores can force turnovers (17th in the country in steals per game), and Texas does average over 10 giveaways per game this season.

However, the Longhorns are also an elite offense, averaging over 78 points per game while shooting 36.3 percent from deep.

While I’m not sold on Texas pulling off the upset, I do think two teams that rank inside the top-55 in adjusted offensive efficiency is a good sign for the OVER.

The first meeting between these teams finished with 154 combined points, buoyed by a 51-point second half from Vandy. Don’t be shocked if this game reaches a similar number on Wednesday. 

Pick: OVER 149.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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