The Players Championship Live Odds and Prediction: Rory McIlroy Within Striking Distance Ahead of Final Round

Iain MacMillan | Mar 16, 2025

Rory McIlroy is third on the live odds list to win The Players Championship. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Find out the live odds for the McIlroy vs. Spaun Monday playoff here.

We're three rounds into the 2025 edition of the Players Championship, and the tournament has lived up to expectations so far.

We have a bunched-up leaderboard through three rounds of hectic, windy, roller coaster rounds at TPC Sawgrass. J.J. Spaun lipped in a par putt on the 54th hole of the event to hold a one-stroke lead heading into Sunday's final round. Bud Cauley sits one stroke back of him at 11 under par. Lucas Glover and Alex Smalley are tied for third at 9 under, and then Corey Conners, Rory McIlroy, and Akshay Bhatia are grouped in at T5 at 8 under.

So, who’s going to step up and win the unofficial fifth major? Let’s take a look at the live odds, and then I’ll break down my prediction.

The Players Championship live odds ahead of final round

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• J.J. Spaun +210
• Bud Cauley +450
• Rory McIlroy +650
• Lucas Glover +1000
• Alex Smalley +1200
• Corey Conners +1600
• Akshay Bhatia +1800
• Patrick Cantlay +2200
• Sepp Straka +2500
• Scottie Scheffler +3000
• Jake Knapp +4500
• Stephan Jaeger +5000
• Max Mcgreevy +5000
• Danny Walker +7500
• J.T. Poston +9000

J.J. Spaun is the 54-hole leader and the live favorite to win at +210 odds, an implied probability of 29.41%.

Who will win The Players Championship?

If you think Spaun is the obvious live bet to make heading into the final round, think again. There have been nine golfers who have been leading the Players heading into the final round since 2007 and not a single golfer converted the lead into a win.

Led The Players by 1 entering final round since 2007:

'07 O'Hair - didn't win
'08 Goydos - didn't win
'10 Westwood - didn't win
'11 McDowell - didn't win
'12 Na - didn't win
'15 Kirk - didn't win
'19 Rahm - didn't win
'22 Lahiri - didn't win
'24 Schauffele - didn't win
'25 Spaun

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) March 15, 2025

So, if we’re going to look in a different direction, which name should we lock in? I’m looking at a name we're all familiar with: Rory McIlroy.

Of all the names in contention, he's the only one with a track record of consistent success at big events throughout his career. Not only that, but of any golfer who is T5 or better, he's the one with the best approach numbers this season, gaining an average of +1.72 strokes per round with his irons.

McIlroy’s driving accuracy has hurt him at times throughout the tournament, but he's been able to find ways to overcome that with his irons and putting. He'll be four strokes back when he tees off on Sunday, but with more wind expected, that lead could get cut down in a hurry.

What has been most impressive in some fashion the first three rounds, especially on Saturday, was his ability to stay mentally strong. We saw the third-round conditions get to other top-tier golfers like Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler, but even when things weren't going his way, McIlroy managed to have a short memory. His birdie on the 54th hole after shooting three-over-par in his previous six holes was proof of that.

It's time for the 2019 Players winner to go out there and earn a second career win at TPC Sawgrass.

Pick: Rory McIlroy +750 via Caesars Sportsbook

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