Thunder Surge to Mammoth Favorite in Latest NBA Finals Odds After Game 5 Win

Can the Thunder close out the Pacers to capture the title?

The Thunder are now -1600 favorites to win the title this season. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder are just one win away.

After entering the 2025 NBA Finals as massive favorites to beat the Indiana Pacers, the Thunder saw their odds swing drastically across the first four games, especially since they fell behind with losses in Game 1 and Game 3.

However, the Thunder finally took a lead in the series, beating the Pacers by 11 points on Monday night to take a 3-2 lead back Indiana for Game 6 on Thursday night.

As a result, oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have majorly shifted the odds to win the title. OKC is now a -1600 favorite (an implied probability of 94.12 percent) to win one of the next two games in this series to capture the title.

It appears that the betting market expects this to happen as soon as Game 6, as the Thunder are five-point favorites in the opening odds for that matchup.

All season long, the Thunder have been the best team in the NBA, leading the league in net rating while posting a 68=14 regular-season record. OKC has struggled a bit on the road in the playoffs, covering the spread just one time, but it has now won two games in a row against the Pacers to take control of this series.

Jalen Williams was the driving force for OKC on Monday night, as he finished with a team-high 40 points to lead the Thunder to an 11-point win.

While the Pacers have competed in every game in this series, oddsmakers aren't buying them to win two straight. Indy is +950 to win the title (an implied probability of 9.52 percent), and it has to defy some pretty crazy odds to win this series.

In NBA Finals history, when the series is tied 2-2, the team that wins Game 5 has gone on to win the Finals 74 percent of the time (23-for-31). That's a bad sign for the Pacers, who are going to be set as underdogs in Game 6 and Game 7, barring a major injury to OKC.

Prior to the season, OKC was +700 to win the Finals at DraftKings while the Pacers were +6000. Now, the current Finals odds appear to reflect that gap once again with OKC just a win away from history.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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