Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Oct. 27

OKC is a massive favorite on the road on Monday.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target on Monday. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

It’s been a wild start to the season for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as they’ve gone to overtime on multiple occasions in three games but are still 3-0 this season.

On Monday, OKC hits the road to play Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks, who picked up their first win of the 2025-26 season on Sunday night against the Toronto Raptors.

After back-to-back poor offensive showings, the Mavs scored 139 points on Sunday and will aim to carry that momentum into tonight’s game against the defending champs.

Dallas is a home underdog in this game, but the Thunder have a loaded injury report with Chet Holmgren listed as questionable and Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe and Jalen Williams all ruled out.

That makes it a little tougher to lay 8.5 points with the Thunder, especially on the road.

Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch and my prediction for Monday’s Western Conference battle.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -8.5 (-105)
• Mavs +8.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -325
• Mavs: +260

Total

• 226.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Mavericks How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Oct. 27
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: American Airlines Center
• How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
• Thunder record: 3-0
• Mavs record: 1-2

Thunder vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Alex Caruso – out
• Chet Holmgren – questionable
• Isaiah Joe – out
• Jalen Williams – out
• Kenrich Williams – out
• Nikola Topic – out
• Thomas Sorber – out

Mavs Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Thunder vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points (-104)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m betting on SGA to clear his points prop against Dallas: 

It’s been a great start to the season for reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as he’s averaging 40.0 points per game through three games while shooting 52.7 percent from the field. SGA hasn’t even shot the 3-ball well (22.7 percent from deep), but he’s put together huge scoring performances to lead OKC to an undefeated start.

On Monday, SGA takes on a Dallas team that has given up 125, 117 and 129 points in three games, ranking 19th in the NBA in defensive rating and 21st in opponent points per game.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage has been massive – he’s taken 17 or more shots in every game – and he gets to the line a ton (44 free-throw attempts in three games). 

With Chet Holmgren questionable and Jalen Williams out on Monday night, a ton of the scoring burden for OKC is going to fall on Gilgeous-Alexander.

He’s more than capable of handling it, and he won the scoring title averaging 32.7 points per game last season. He’s an easy bet at this number on Monday. 

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City is off to a 3-0 start this season, but it has gone to overtime in two of those games and failed to cover the spread in both.

Now, the Thunder are favored by 8.5 points on the road with Chet Holmgren listed as questionable and Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe out. 

I can’t get to this number for OKC, especially since Dallas has a lot of size for OKC to deal with on the interior and the Thunder lack center depth after Isaiah Hartenstein when Holmgren sits. If Holmgren plays, there is an argument to be made for OKC after a 17-point win over a shorthanded Atlanta team.

Still, Dallas is riding high off a win over Toronto on Sunday, as it found an offensive groove in that game, putting up 139 points.

OKC will likely win this matchup, but the Mavs should be able to keep it within three possessions.  

Pick: Mavericks +8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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