Thunder vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets for Game 6 (Target SGA, Jalen Williams, Nikola Jokic)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets matchup in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prop target in Game 6. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a chance to close out their Western Conference semifinal series with the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, and they’re set as road favorites to get it done.

But Nikola Jokic is on the other side with a chance to force a Game 7. So, if you’re not feeling like there’s an edge betting on either team, there is still a way to bet on this matchup in the prop market.

I’m eyeing three plays on Thursday, including picks for Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the two superstars for these franchises.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thunder vs. Nuggets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (+110)
• Jalen Williams UNDER 21.5 Points (-120)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 Points (-110)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (+110)

During this series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a whopping 18.6 potential assists per game, yet he’s only cleared 7.5 dimes in two of the five matchups.

Now, SGA has a solid floor when it comes to this prop, picking up eight, eight, seven, six, and seven assists against Denver. However, his teammates have not knocked down shots at a high enough rate for him to clear this prop on a nightly basis.

Still, with oddsmakers setting the OVER at plus money, I think this prop is worth taking. Denver is likely going to try to shut off any SGA drives to the basket it can, and the star guard has been finding his teammates at a higher rate than he did in the regular season.

Jalen Williams UNDER 21.5 Points (-120)

Oklahoma City All-Star Jalen Williams has struggled in the second-round playoffs so far, shooting 36.7 percent from the field and 24.1 percent from 3 while averaging 18.6 points per game.

He’s only cleared 21.5 points in one game in this series – Game 3 – when he put up 32 points on 11-of-21 shooting.

In the other four games in this series, Williams has taken 14 or fewer shots on three occasions, scoring 16, 17, 10, and 18 points in those contests. 

I can’t trust him at this number in Game 6, especially since his efficiency has been way down from the regular season when he shot 48.4 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from 3. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 Points (-110)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Nikola Jokic is a great target in Game 6: 

The Thunder have tried to take away Jokic’s elite passing ability in this series, holding him to just 26 assists in five games.

For reference, Jokic averaged over 10 assists per game in the regular season, yet he does not have a game with more than six assists in this series.

With OKC forcing Jokic to be a scorer, the three-time league MVP has obliged, taking 22 or more shots in four of his five games in this matchup. Not only that, but Jokic has two 40-point games, including a 44-point masterpiece in Game 5.

The Nuggets have been playing a short rotation, and Jokic has suited up for over 42 minutes in four of the five games in this series. 

In a must-win game, he is a great bet at this number if his shot count remains in the 20s.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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