Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, July 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Detroit Tigers-Cleveland Guardians matchup on June 6.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal is a solid prop target on July 6. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers have back-to-back one-run wins over the Cleveland Guardians, and they’re looking to finish off a sweep of their division rival on Sunday afternoon.

Ace Tarik Skubal – the reigning AL Cy Young award winner – is on the mound for the Tigers against Cleveland’s Gavin Williams.

Cleveland is in fourth place in the AL Central and sits at seven games under .500 entering this matchup. Meanwhile, the Tigers appear to be one of the safer division leaders as the season gets closer to the All-Star break.

Can Detroit cover the run line as a massive favorite in Skubal’s 18th start of the 2025 season?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and my game prediction for this rivalry matchup. 

Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Tigers -1.5 (-131)
• Guardians +1.5 (+107)

Moneyline 

• Tigers: -231
• Guardians: +186

Total

• 7.5 (Over -107/Under -114)

Tigers vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.15 ERA)
• Cleveland: Gavin Williams (5-4, 3.86 ERA)

Tigers vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 6
• Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): CLEG, FDSDET
• Tigers record: 56-34
• Guardians record: 40-47

Tigers vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Tarik Skubal OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-115)

The last time Skubal faced Cleveland, he threw a two-hit shutout in just 94 pitches.

So, I have no problem backing the lefty to work into the seventh inning in Sunday’s series finale. Skubal enters this start with eight different outings where he recorded 19 or more outs, and he threw seven or more innings in three of his five starts in June.

The Cleveland offense is downright awful, ranking in the bottom three in MLB in OPS, runs scored and batting average. Skubal should cruise against the Guardians on Sunday. 

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why Detroit is a must-bet with Skubal on the mound: 

When Tarik Skubal is on the mound, it’s nearly impossible to bet against the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit is 56-34 in the 2025 season and has a 14.5-game lead on the fourth-place Cleveland Guardians heading into their series finale on Sunday.

Cleveland has Gavin Williams on the mound, and he enters this start with a 3.86 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 17 appearances. 

While Williams hasn’t been bad in 2025, the Guardians offense has been. Cleveland ranks 29th in batting average, 28th in OPS and 27th in runs scored. That won’t cut it against Skubal, who enters Sunday’s start with a 2.15 ERA and a shocking 0.83 WHIP this season.

The Tigers are 13-4 when Skubal is on the mound this season, and 10 of those wins have come by two or more runs. I’ll gladly back the best team in the American League to keep that trend rolling with a run line victory on Sunday. 

Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-131 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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