Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 23

The Tigers are favored with Tarik Skubal on the mound.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal is a solid prop target on Tuesday. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The AL Central race could be decided early this week, as the Detroit Tigers take on the Cleveland Guardians.

Detroit has stumbled in September, as it’s just one game up on the Guardians entering the final week of the regular season. Meanwhile, Cleveland has won nine of its last 10 games and is in the mix for both the AL Central division title and a wild card spot in the AL. 

Cleveland would love to finish strong to at least secure a playoff spot, as the Houston Astros are tied with the Guardians record wise in the AL wild card race. 

On Tuesday, Detroit is a road favorite in Game 1 of this series with AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal on the mound. However, the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, who has led them to wins in eight of his last 11 starts.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Tuesday night’s contest. 

Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Tigers -1.5 (+118)
• Guardians +1.5 (-144)

Moneyline

• Tigers: -157
• Guardians: +129

Total

• 6.5 (Over -112/Under -109)

Tigers vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Tarik Skubal (13-5, 2.23 ERA)
• Cleveland: Gavin Williams (11-5, 3.06 ERA)

Tigers vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 23
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): CLEG, FDSDET
• Tigers record: 85-71
• Guardians record: 84-72

Tigers vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Tarik Skubal UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-151)

This season, Skubal has made three starts against the Guardians, pitching one shutout and allowing just one run across 23.0 innings of work.

Cleveland has not been able to get anything going against the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, and it has struggled against lefties all season long. The Guardians are 28th in MLB in batting average against lefties and 27th in OPS.

Skubal has given up one or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 30 starts in 2025, so he’s certainly worth a look against this offense. Even though he allowed seven hits in his last start against Cleveland, Skubal allowed just one run in six innings of work. 

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why Tarik Skubal is a must-bet in this crucial AL Central battle: 

The Tigers have just a one-game lead in the AL Central heading into Tuesday’s battle with the Guardians, who have won nine of their last 10 games to get into the wild card picture and back in the race in this division.

Luckily for the Tigers, they have ace Tarik Skubal on the mound, and he’s dominated Cleveland in the 2025 season.

The lefty has allowed just one run and 12 hits across 23.0 innings of work against Cleveland this season, leading the Tigers to wins in two of those three games. 

He’ll face a tough matchup on Tuesday against Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (3.06 ERA), who has posted a 2.10 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break.

While I understand backing Williams because of his recent success, I’m not going to fade Skubal in this spot where he’s actually reasonably priced on the moneyline.

The Tigers are 21-9 in the Cy Young favorite’s starts, and Cleveland has done nothing against him all season. The Guardians are also in the bottom-five in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitching this season.

Detroit should extend its division lead on Tuesday. 

Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-157 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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