Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for ALDS Game 2

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Detroit Tigers-Seattle Mariners matchup in Game 2 of the ALDS.

The Detroit Tigers are favored with pitcher Tarik Skubal on the mound. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers are looking to take a 2-0 series lead in the ALDS after a thrilling win in extra innings on Saturday night.

Despite having home field, the Seattle Mariners have their backs against the wall in this series, as they’re facing arguably the best pitcher in the American League in Game 2. 

Skubal led the Tigers to a win in Game 1 of the wild card round against the Cleveland Guardians, and he and the Tigers are favored on the road in this matchup.

The Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, who finished the regular season on a high note, allowing one or fewer runs in each of his last four starts.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 2 on Sunday night. 

Tigers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line 

• Tigers -1.5 (+144)
• Mariners +1.5 (-176)

Moneyline

• Tigers: -137
• Mariners: +113

Total

• 5.5 (Over -120/Under -102)

Tigers vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA)
• Seattle: Luis Castillo (11-8, 3.54 ERA)

Tigers vs. Mariners How to Watch 

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 5
• Time: 8:03 p.m. EST
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Series: Tigers lead 1-0

Tigers vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+439)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why I like Greene to go deep against the Mariners: 

I love Sunday’s matchup for Tigers outfielder Riley Greene, as he takes on Luis Castillo and the Mariners.

In his career against Castillo, Greene is 4-for-8 with a double, a triple and two runs batted in. While he’s yet to take Castillo deep, he clearly sees the ball well against the Mariners righty.

During the regular season, Castillo allowed 23 home runs in 32 starts, so he is prone to the long ball to some extent.

Greene also crushed right-handed pitching, posting a .276 batting average while hitting 32 of his 36 home runs. 

Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

In a play in today’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – for SI Betting, I broke down why Skubal is a must-bet in Game 2: 

The Tigers went 21-10 with Skubal on the mound in the regular season, and they’re 1-0 so far in the playoffs.

The lefty was elite against the Guardians in the wild card round, allowing just three hits and one run across 7.2 innings of work. Now, he takes on a Seattle lineup that scored just two runs in Game 1 against Troy Melton and this Detroit bullpen.

While I don’t think Castillo (3.54 ERA) has been bad this season, he does have a concerning expected ERA (4.10, 43rd percentile). 

There’s no doubt that Skubal is the better starter in this matchup, and the Detroit bullpen has been solid in four playoff games, posting a 3.06 ERA. 

I think this is a pretty reasonable price to bet on Skubal and the Tigers, and bettors could always wager on just the first five innings if they only want to bet on Detroit when Skubal is likely in the game. 

Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-137 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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