Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 23

Can the Tigers avoid a sweep on Wednesday?

The Detroit Tigers are favored on the road on Wednesday. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers are struggling right now, dropping eight of their last 10 games and back-to-back matchups with the Pittsburgh Pirates heading into Wednesday afternoon’s series finale. 

Detroit is favored to win on the road in this matchup, as the team’s No. 10 prospect Troy Melton will make his MLB debut after posting a 2.99 ERA in Double-A and Triple-A action this season. It’s likely this is just a spot start for Melton, but he clearly has some fans in Vegas with many of the best betting sites setting Detroit as a favorite in this game. 

Pittsburgh will counter with lefty Bailey Falter (4.00 ERA) after it picked up wins behind starts from Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller to open this series. 

The Pirates are well out of the playoff race in the NL, but can they continue to play spoiler on what has been a great season to date for the Tigers?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for the final game of this three-game set. 

Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

• Tigers -1.5 (+113)
• Pirates +1.5 (-137)

Moneyline

• Tigers: -149
• Pirates: +123

Total

• 8.5 (Over -121/Under -101)

Tigers vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Troy Melton (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Bailey Falter (6-5, 4.00 ERA)

Tigers vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 23
• Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PT, FDSDET
• Tigers record: 60-42
• Pirates record: 41-61

Tigers vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Bailey Falter UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)

The Tigers are averaging over eight strikeouts per game in the 2025 season, but I can’t trust Bailey Falter in this prop market.

This season, Falter has just seven games (out of 20) with four or more punchouts, and he’s totaled just 61 K’s across 101.0 innings of work. Statcast has Falter ranked in the fourth percentile in strikeout percentage and the sixth percentile in both whiff percentage and chase rate.

He struggles to generate swings and misses, and the Detroit offense is good enough to potentially chase him from this game early. Despite having a 4.00 ERA, Falter’s expected ERA currently sits at 4.50 this season. 

Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

This is a tough game to handicap since we don’t know how long the Tigers plan to let Melton pitch – or how well he will fare in his first start at the MLB level. 

Still, I have a hard time trusting the Pirates and their offense (dead last in OPS and runs scored this season), especially with Falter on the mound. 

Even if Melton struggles a bit in his debut, this is a pretty soft matchup since the Pirates have struggled so much on offense. 

On the Pirates’ side, Falter has led Pittsburgh to a 10-10 record in his 20 outings, but he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball when it comes to his advanced numbers. Per Statcast, Falter ranks in the 27th percentile or worse in expected ERA, expected batting average against, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage, average exit velocity against, hard-hit percentage and ground-ball percentage. 

Yikes.

Detroit’s recent skid is a bit worrisome, but the team still has a huge lead in the AL Central thanks to a fast start to 2025. I’ll bet on the Tigers avoiding the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. 

Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-149 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Regardless of the outcome of your wager, DraftKings will add six $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account instantly.