Timberwolves vs. Thunder Series Odds, Prediction, Betting Preview for Western Conference Finals

Who will make the NBA Finals out of the Western Conference?

The Timberwolves are underdogs in the Western Conference Finals. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Western Conference representative in the 2025 NBA Finals will be a team that has never won an NBA title.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves took very different paths to the Western Conference Finals, but the two division rivals should play a very entertaining series, which starts on Tuesday night.

Anthony Edwards and the Wolves are back in the West Finals for the second straight season after beating both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in just five games. However, the No. 6-seeded Timberwolves are sizable underdogs against an OKC team that won 68 games in the regular season and finished with the best net rating in the NBA.

The Thunder have a quick turnaround ahead of Game 1, as they needed seven games to get past the Denver Nuggets in the second round. OKC is back in the conference finals for the first time since 2016 – Kevin Durant’s last season with the franchise.

Oddsmakers have set OKC as a massive favorite in this series (-330), but is that warranted against a Minnesota team that was fourth in the league in net rating this season and has stormed through the playoffs to this point?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, trends to watch, and my prediction for who will make the NBA Finals from the West.  

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Series Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Minnesota Timberwolves: +265
• Oklahoma City Thunder: -330

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Correct Score Odds

• Thunder in 5: +300
• Thunder in 7: +370
• Thunder in 4: +400
• Thunder in 6: +475
• Timberwolves in 6: +750
• Timberwolves in 7: +900
• Timberwolves in 5: +1700
• Timberwolves in 4: +2200

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Preview

• During the regular season, these teams split their four matchups, with each squad winning once on the road and once at home.
• The Thunder finished the regular season with the best net rating in the NBA.
• Minnesota finished the regular season with the fourth-best net rating in the NBA.
• These teams have the top two defensive ratings in the playoffs.
• The Timberwolves are 11-6 against the spread as road underdogs this season.
• Oklahoma City was just 2-5 against the spread in the second round against Denver.
• Julius Randle, who has been great this postseason, appeared in just one of the four regular-season matchups between these squads.
• The Timberwolves are 25-6 (including playoffs) since Randle returned from injury. 
• Jalen Williams is coming off a Denver series where he shot just 37.5% from the field and 23.7% from 3. 
• Minnesota has a major rest advantage entering this series after beating Golden State in five games.
• NBA Finals odds: OKC is the favorite at -165 while Minnesota is third at +550. 

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

After the Timberwolves beat the Lakers, I wrote that I think they’re a great bet to win the NBA Finals.

And even though they are playing the best team in the NBA from the regular season, I still believe the Wolves have enough to get things done – if they can limit their turnovers.

The key for the Thunder all season long, and a big reason why they have the No. 1 defense, is that they force a ton of turnovers (18.3 per game in the playoffs) that allow them to get out in transition.

Now, Minnesota is No. 2 in turnovers forced per game in the playoffs (15.9), but it also ranks 12th in turnovers per game (14.8). There are some lineups for the Wolves when Mike Conley is out of the game, where their ball-handling is a little suspect. That’s something certainly worth watching in this series.

However, Minnesota is a significantly better defensive team than the Nuggets, who just took the Thunder to seven games in the second round. Not only does Minnesota have a plethora of defenders that it can throw at SGA (Denver had Christian Braun and that’s about it), but it has tremendous size across the roster to match up with OKC’s two-big lineups.

During the regular season, these teams played some hard-fought battles, with the Wolves hanging in every single game – even though Julius Randle played in just one of the four meetings between these squads.

Minnesota was 17-4 after the All-Star break with Randle in the lineup and is now 8-2 in the playoffs. So, it has won 25 of the last 31 games that Randle has appeared in.

The Thunder were the best team in the NBA in the regular season, but Minnesota’s net rating (fourth in the league) is getting overlooked because the team started slow. One could argue that the Wolves closed out the 2024-25 season stronger than any other team.

OKC is great, and I expect this to be a long series, but the Thunder have been exposed in playoff series because of their lack of a No. 2 option.

If a Denver team that lacks elite defense can just play a zone and pack things in because Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren aren’t hitting enough shots, what can a defense led by Rudy Gobert accomplish?

Minnesota has the bodies to make things as tough as possible on Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter, and the Thunder need their secondary players to step up and score to take some pressure off of him.

While SGA has an edge over Anthony Edwards as the best player in this series, this postseason, Randle has clearly been the better player out of him, Williams, and Holmgren. 

If he keeps that up – he has had playoff struggles before – the Wolves are a really tough out. 

I think based on the price of this series, Minnesota is being undervalued for the issues it gave OKC in the regular season and the fact that it should be extremely fresh entering Game 1. The Thunder, on the other hand, have one day off after going the distance in the second round.

Yes, OKC won against Denver and had a commanding victory to close things out, but it also trailed late in the fourth quarter in Games 4 and 5 and was on the ropes for a good chunk of the series because of the lack of offense around SGA.

Against a much better defensive team like Minnesota, I’m not sold on the Thunder rolling to the Finals like the odds suggest. 

Pick: Timberwolves to win series (+265 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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