Timberwolves NBA Finals Odds Remain a Major Value, Bet on Them to Win Title Before It’s Too Late

Can the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Finals this season?

The Timberwolves are undervalued to win the NBA Finals. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

I’m going to come right out and say it: I think the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to win the NBA Finals. 

And before you call this an overreaction, I’d advise that I’ve held this position for quite some time. Before the playoffs, I wrote this in SI Betting’s NBA Finals Odds preview: 

The most interesting team on this list may be the Minnesota Timberwolves, as they turned things on in the second half of the season and made the Western Conference Finals in the 2023-24 campaign. At +6500, Minnesota could be worth a small bet to win the title since its odds are so far out from some of the other top contenders.

Minnesota made quick work of the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs, winning in five games, and it has jumped to +1700 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the title. To put this movement in perspective, we need to look at the implied probability associated with these odds.

At +6500, Minnesota had an implied probability of just 1.52 percent to win the title. It makes sense, since oddsmakers and many pundits had the Lakers winning in the first round. Now, at +1700, Minnesota has a 5.56 percent chance of winning the title.

In a vacuum, that doesn’t seem like a massive change, but I think there’s a real chance the Timberwolves will be favored to win the second-round series against either the Golden State Warriors or the Houston Rockets.

If Golden State avoids blowing a 3-1 series deficit, the Wolves will have home-court advantage in the second round since Golden State is the No. 7 seed. For a No. 6 seed, that’s about as fortunate as you’re going to get in a second-round series. 

So, why will the Wolves beat these two teams, no matter who advances?

Let’s start with Golden State – who I believe will close out this series.

The Warriors, like the Lakers, don’t play a traditional big man in most lineups, and even with Draymond Green protecting the rim, they lack elite rim protection. This postseason, the Warriors are 13th out of 16 playoff teams in opponent points in the paint per game (48.0).

For comparison, the Lakers allowed 50.0 points in the paint per game in their series with the Timberwolves.

Minnesota dominated Game 5 with Rudy Gobert on the floor, and while I don’t expect that to be the norm the rest of the postseason, the Wolves have that lineup – and a small-ball group with Naz Reid at the center spot – that can terrorize the Warriors in the paint. 

After watching Julius Randle, Reid, Jaden McDaniels, and Anthony Edwards have their way getting into the paint and finishing against the Lakers, I seriously wonder if the Warriors’ interior defense will be able to hold up.

Plus, this Minnesota team is significantly better on offense than Houston. The Wolves are fifth in the NBA in offensive rating in the playoffs, and the major concern with Houston entering this series was that it lacked a true No. 1 scorer. During the regular season, the Rockets were dead last in the NBA in clutch-time field goal percentage. 

Golden State has the threat of Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler that no other team left in the playoffs has – two elite closers that have carried teams to the NBA Finals – but we’ve seen the Warriors get outclassed by Houston twice in the first round because of their lack of secondary scoring options. 

Against a Timberwolves team that has one of the best defenses in the NBA as well, Golden State may not be able to get away with winning low-scoring games since Minnesota has such a good offense.

If Houston wins, I think Minnesota will roll. The Rockets – even with their Game 5 win – have been a nightmare on offense for most of this series, and they have struggled to score in the half-court.

Plus, similar to the Warriors, the Wolves have a ton of playoff experience compared to most of this young Houston team. Even without home court in a potential second-round matchup, I believe Minnesota would be favored to win the series. 

The Case for Minnesota to Advance Past the Oklahoma City Thunder

If the Wolves advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second straight season, they’ll likely face the Oklahoma City Thunder, although the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are locked into an entertaining first-round series and also could make a deep run.

We already saw Minnesota handle Denver last season in a second-round matchup, and the Nuggets aren’t even as deep a roster as they were then. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has struggled a bit against Memphis this season. For a team that only had 14 losses in the regular season, two of them came against the Wolves, and both of OKC’s wins were by less than 10 points.

There’s no doubt that OKC would be favored in this hypothetical matchup, but Minnesota has a lot of lanky defenders that it could throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Thunder’s secondary scoring options are always going to be a topic of discussion until Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren proves that they can be an offensive engine for an entire playoff run. 

The reason the Wolves’ odds are all the way out at +1700 is likely because they won’t be favored, and definitely won’t have home court, in the Western Conference Finals should they make it there. However, this isn’t your typical six seed.

This is a team that was top-five in the league in net rating, and history tells us that is a great sign for the Wolves’ chances of winning it all. 

History Tells Us Minnesota is a True Title Contender

Since the 1996-97 season, every NBA team that has won the NBA Finals has finished the regular season with one of the eight-best net ratings in the NBA.

Where did Minnesota finish this season? Fourth.  

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished top 8 in net rating in the regular season.

This season's top 8 in net rating:

1. Thunder
2. Celtics
3. Cavs
4. Timberwolves
5. Clippers
6. Grizzlies
7. Rockets
8. Knicks

— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 14, 2025

For a team that was just the No. 6 seed in the West and barely avoided the play-in tournament, this seems pretty shocking, but the Wolves were eighth in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating during the regular season.

Minnesota’s wing depth from Edwards to McDaniels to Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker gives it the ability to throw multiple bodies at some of the scorers on the best teams in the NBA (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell and others), and I believe it can keep Minnesota in many of these games. 

The Wolves made Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James really work for their buckets in the first round. Doncic finished the series shooting under 35 percent from 3, Reaves averaged four fewer points per game than his season average, and James disappeared in the fourth quarter of a crucial Game 4. 

On the offensive end, this Timberwolves team can really mix and match combinations to put five players that can score the ball – and put it on the floor – when they need to. They have the size to deal with the two-big lineups that OKC and Cleveland like to run, and they can play small with Golden State and Boston. 

Plus, Anthony Edwards has blossomed into one of the league’s best playoff performers, averaging 24.6 points per game or more in each of the last three postseasons. 

This team made the Western Conference Finals for a reason last season, and yet, oddsmakers continue to treat them as a dark horse contender. Minnesota is much more than that. 

At this price, I’d be running to the counter to get a Wolves ticket to win the Finals – if you haven’t already.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.