Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (Expect Plenty of Goals in Stars vs. Jets)

Iain MacMillan | May 9, 2025

Bet the OVER in Game 2 between the Stars and Jets. / Terrence Lee-Imagn Images

NHL Postseason action rolls on tonight, and we have a couple of must-watch matchups set to take place.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a chance to take a commanding 3-0 series lead against the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, but a win for the home team will make things interesting ahead of Game 4.

In the Western Conference, the Dallas Stars will try to steal both games in Winnipeg as they take on the Jets in Game 2.

Let's dive into my best bets for tonight's action.

Top NHL Picks Today

• Maple Leafs +205 vs. Panthers via Caesars
• Matthew Tkachuk UNDER 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115) via DraftKings
• Stars vs. Jets OVER 5.5 (-120) via Caesars
• Jake Oettinger OVER 26.5 Saves (-110) via BetMGM

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Prediction

As someone who bet on the Panthers in the first two games, I'm not surprised to see the Maple Leafs as underdogs in Game 3, but +205 underdogs is a complete mis-price in my opinion.

The Maple Leafs have done this series what they've done all season. They may get outplayed from an advanced analytics perspective, but they make the most of their scoring opportunities and now have a shooting percentage of 18% through the first two games. Strong shooting and solid goaltending can and will overcome a lot of deficiencies in other areas, so I'm not afraid to back them as +205 'dogs tonight.

Sergei Bobrovsky's .876 save percentage in the playoffs isn't nearly good enough to justify the Panthers being this big of favorites.

Pick: Maple Leafs +205

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Prop Bet

Matthew Tkachuk has become one of the most overvalued players in the betting market in the postseason. He has averaged just 1.57 shots on goal per game so far in the playoffs, yet his shots total for tonight is set at 2.5 with the under at enticing +115 odds. He has hit three shots on goal just twice all playoffs. In Game 1 against the Leafs, he failed to register a single shot on goal.

Pick: Matthew Tkachuk UNDER 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115)

Stars vs. Jets Prediction

The Jets, who made a name for themselves in the regular season as a defensive powerhouse, have opened up their style of play in the playoffs. There were 5.52 expected goals in the first game of this series and a combined 24 high-danger scoring chances.

We have yet to see Connor Hellebuyck look like the goalie he was in the regular season, and I don't see enough evidence from these two teams to expect this to be a low-scoring game. I'll back the OVER.

Pick: OVER 5.5 (-120)

Stars vs. Jets Prop Bet

No team in the NHL allowed more shots on goal in the second half of the season than the Dallas Stars. That problem has followed them into the postseason, where they have allowed 32.31 shots on goal per 60 minutes of play. That has led to Jake Oettinger being busy between the pipes on a nightly basis, and Game 1 was no different, seeing 31 shots and stopping 29 of them. He has made at least 27 saves in five of the Stars' eight playoff games so far this postseason. Let's bet on him reaching that number again tonight.

Pick: Jake Oettinger OVER 26.5 Saves (-110)

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