Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Senators Will Force Game 7 vs. Maple Leafs)

Iain MacMillan | May 1, 2025

The Senators are favored against the Maple Leafs in Game 6 on Thursday night. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs looked like they were going to be the first team to wrap up a series in the opening round of the NHL Playoffs, but all of a sudden, they'll be playing in a Game 6 tonight, and the rest of the Eastern Conference has already been decided.

Four separate Game 6s will take place tonight, so there's a great chance that at least one more series will be decided before the weekend. As always, I'm here to break down my best bets for the action.

• NHL Season-to-Date Record: 173-164-8 (-1.45 units)

Top NHL Picks Today

All odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Senators (-118) vs. Maple Leafs
• Golden Knights (-165) vs. Wild
• Darcy Kuemper OVER 27.5 Saves (-135)

Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction

Before Game 5, I wrote about how we should all expect a Senators series comeback based on the embarrassing history of the Maple Leafs in close-out games. I expect that to continue tonight.

If the Maple Leafs were statistically dominating this series, maybe I could be convinced the Maple Leafs would overcome their demons and close things out. Unfortunately, the Senators have been the better team by most metrics, most notably sporting a +0.17 expected goals per 60 minutes of play.

Linus Ullmark seems to have woken up in their last game as well, shutting out the Leafs. If he plays like that again tonight, Toronto has no chance.

Pick: Senators -118

Golden Knights vs. Wild Prediction

The Minnesota Wild have found an advantage on special teams, but when it's 5-on-5, the Golden Knights have been one of the more dominant teams so far this postseason. Vegas ranks second amongst all teams in the playoffs in 5-on-5 expected goal differential per 60 minutes at +0.59.

They've been the better team throughout the series and I expect them to close things out tonight.

Pick: Golden Knights -165

Kings vs. Oilers Prop Bet

If the Los Angeles Kings want to force a Game 7, they need Darcy Kuemper to have a big performance. The Kings have allowed the most shots on goal amongst all teams so far in this postseason, allowing 34.12 shots on goal per 60 minutes. That leads me to believe that no matter the outcome of the game, Kuemper is going to see a ton of shots.

If he can record 28 saves, this bet will be a winner.

Pick: Darcy Kuemper OVER 27.5 Saves (-135)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!