Bet on Maple Leafs to Melt Down Once Again vs. Senators

Iain MacMillan | Apr 29, 2025

The Senators are a great bet at 9-1 to come back and eliminate the Maple Leafs. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs stormed out to a 3-0 series lead against the Ottawa Senators. They looked like they were about to get the better of the Senators in a series that looked a lot like the postseason matchups from these two teams in the early 2000s.

Then, the Senators managed to find some momentum, capturing victory in a win-or-go-home Game 4 in overtime. In most cases, when a team has a 3-1 series lead, they still feel extremely comfortable knowing they only need to win one of the next three games to advance to the next round.

When it comes to the Maple Leafs, Game 5 will be anything but comfortable. That uncomfortable feeling will quickly turn to anxiety if the Senators win another one, and if this series goes to Game 7, there will be full-blown panic in the city of Toronto.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Series Odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Maple Leafs -1700
• Senators +950

Will Senators Comeback vs. Maple Leafs?

If you're even a casual hockey fan, you know the history of the Maple Leafs' playoff results over the past 15 years. If you're not familiar, let me catch you up.

The Maple Leafs have made 10 postseason appearances since 2012, advancing to the second round just once. The first of that run was a Game 7 meltdown against the Boston Bruins in the first round of the 2012-13 playoffs when they blew a 4-1 lead in Game 7 with 10 minutes remaining in the game. The Bruins would storm back to score three goals in the final 9:18 and then eventually won the game in overtime.

The Maple Leafs then started a new era in 2016 when they drafted their star player, forming a new "Big Four" consisting of Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly. Since those four players joined the team, not only do they have just one playoff series win, but they are now 1-12 in series-clinching games.

While the Leafs have yet to blow a 3-0 series lead, they blew a 3-1 series lead against the Montreal Canadiens in 2021, allowing them to win three-straight games, including two in overtime, to be eliminated from the playoffs.

This long history of the Maple Leafs failing to secure a series win time and time again is why we bettors should look long and hard at the Senators at +950 odds ahead of Tuesday night's Game 5.

I can assure you, the playoff demons are already whispering in their ears. If they lost tonight, they're going to be on the cusp of unthinkable disaster, and the weight of that on their shoulders may be too much to bear.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!