UFC Fight Night Predictions and Best Bets: Dern vs. Ribas 2

The first UFC main event of 2025 features two strawweights hoping to enter the title shot discussion with a win

Mackenzie Dern (right) and Amanda Ribas (left) square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night. / Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

• When: Saturday, January 11
• Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
• How to Watch: ESPN+

Doug Vasquez’s 2024 UFC Betting Record: 12-11 (+3.55 Units)

1. Mackenzie Dern (+160) vs. Amanda Ribas (-192) Prediction 
2. Santiago Ponzinibbio (-142) vs. Carlston Harris (+120) Prediction
3. César Almeida (-250) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+205) Prediction 
4. Chris Curtis (+185) vs. Roman Kopylov (-225) Prediction 
5. Christian Rodriguez (+215)  vs. Austin Bashi (-265) Prediction 
6. Punahele Soriano (+180) vs. Uros Medic (-218) Prediction 

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Mackenzie Dern (+160) vs. Amanda Ribas (-192) Prediction 

The rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas offers an intriguing stylistic clash with clear implications for the title picture in the women’s strawweight division. 

Dern is a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but her path to victory is narrow and relies heavily on early aggression. Dern uses chaotic, unpolished striking to close the distance and hunt for submissions. However, her takedown success rate is pretty much non-existent, which makes it difficult for her to consistently bring the fight to the mat and shoot for finishes – especially against a skilled judoka like Ribas, who has one of the best takedown defenses on the roster. Dern’s best chance to win lies in securing an early submission before her cardio fades, as she tends to wilt in the later rounds.

Ribas, on the other hand, is a more well-rounded and technically sound fighter. Her striking is cleaner and more efficient. Ribas excels at maintaining distance with her jab and kicks, effectively neutralizing aggressive grapplers like Dern. If Ribas can survive the early pressure and avoid getting caught in Dern’s grappling exchanges, her superior cardio and volume striking should allow her to control the fight as it progresses.

Best Bet: Amanda Ribas to Win by Decision (-115). 

Ribas’s technical striking, high-level takedown defense, and superior cardio position her perfectly to outpoint Dern in this five-round main event.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-142) vs. Carlston Harris (+120) Prediction

This scrap is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Ponzinibbio, a seasoned UFC veteran, brings a high-level striking game built on sharp boxing, devastating leg kicks, and proven knockout power with 16 career KOs. His technical striking, combined with above-average takedown defense, makes him well-equipped to keep this fight on the feet, where he holds the clear advantage. Ponzinibbio’s ability to control range with his jab and counter heavy-handed opponents makes him extremely dangerous against a less-skilled striker like Harris.

Harris thrives in chaotic, unorthodox exchanges but lacks the finesse and savvy to outstrike the more patient and deliberate fighter in Ponzinibbio. His striking can be wild and reckless, leaving him vulnerable to clean, crisp counterstrikes. Harris's only path to victory lies in his grappling. He will need to close the distance, get Ponzinibbio in clinches, and secure takedowns to neutralize his striking. Harris has struggled with consistent takedown attempts against opponents with solid defensive wrestling, and Ponzinibbio’s ability to stuff takedowns and keep the fight at a distance will be tough for Harris to overcome.

If Harris fails to impose his grappling game early, he will likely be forced into boxing exchanges in close quarters where Ponzinibbio can capitalize. Ponzinibbio’s experience, composure, and precision striking make it difficult to imagine Harris winning a stand-up war. Over the course of three rounds, Ponzinibbio can either systematically outpoint Harris or find a finish as Harris fatigues and leaves his chin exposed.

Best Bet: Santiago Ponzinibbio to Win by KO or Decision (-115). 

Ponzinibbio’s sharp striking and takedown defense give him multiple paths to victory. Whether through a clean knockout or by outstriking Harris over three rounds, this line offers excellent value for a fighter with his experience and skill set.

César Almeida (-250) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+205) Prediction 

Almeida vs. ARA is a classic striker’s matchup that I don’t envision making to the scorecards. This fight pits Almeida’s refined, technical striking against Alhassan’s raw, unharnessed knockout power. 

Almeida has an extensive kickboxing background, thrives when keeping the fight at distance and excels at controlling range with his jabs, leg kicks, and clean combinations. His disciplined movement and defensive acumen allow him to pick apart aggressive opponents without getting drawn into risky exchanges.

A major advantage for Almeida in this fight is his superior cardio and ability to maintain a steady, consistent pace over three rounds. In contrast, Alhassan is a notoriously fast starter, relying almost exclusively on early knockouts to secure victories. All of his UFC wins have come via first-round KO, highlighting his explosive power, but also exposing his predictability. Alhassan’s cardio has historically been a liability, and if his early blitz doesn’t result in a finish, his performance tends to decline rapidly.

Almeida is well-equipped to handle Alhassan’s initial aggression. His patient, methodical approach can frustrate Alhassan, forcing him to overcommit and leave defensive openings. As the fight progresses and Alhassan begins to tire, Almeida’s precision and volume striking will overwhelm him. Almeida may not be known for one-punch knockout power, but his relentless, accurate combinations can lead to a finish especially if Alhassan tires and becomes lazy defensively.

Best Bet: César Almeida to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+130). 

Almeida’s striking and superior cardio make him a threat to earn a stoppage victory. Once Alhassan’s explosive energy fades, Almeida’s volume and accuracy will overwhelm him, creating the perfect scenario for a late TKO or referee stoppage.

Chris Curtis (+185) vs. Roman Kopylov (-225) Prediction 

This is an intriguing matchup that has been severely mispriced by the oddsmakers. With Kopylov sitting as a 2-to-1 favorite, there’s significant value on Curtis that bettors should not overlook. This fight profiles far closer to a 50/50 matchup.

Curtis, with over 40 professional fights. brings a wealth of experience and technical striking to this fight. With a professional record of 31-11-1, Curtis is a composed, well-rounded fighter who excels at neutralizing aggressive opponents. His elite takedown defense will ensure the fight stays in his comfort zone—on the feet—where his defensive head movement, high guard, and sharp counters can dismantle reckless attacks that Kopulov is known for. 

Kopylov, although dangerous, is heavily reliant on his knockout power and early aggression. He is an accurate, high-volume striker, but his cardio has been questionable, particularly when fights extend beyond the first round. If Curtis can withstand Kopylov’s initial onslaught, he has all the tools to take over the fight with his superior fight IQ. Kopylov’s lack of adaptability and deficiencies on the ground put him at risk if he can’t secure an early finish.

Best Bet: Chris Curtis to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (+215). 

This line offers incredible value for a fighter with Curtis’ durability, technical striking, Octagon experience and the ability to adapt to a variety of fight scripts. 

Christian Rodriguez (+215)  vs. Austin Bashi (-265) Prediction 

Rodriguez vs. Bashi is another matchup where the oddsmakers have completely misread the dynamics—similar to the Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov fight. 

Bashi, a Dana White Contender Series alum. is being overvalued as a betting favorite despite clear vulnerabilities that a more experienced and composed fighter like Rodriguez can exploit. Rodriguez has built a reputation for thriving against undefeated prospects, and this matchup fits that pattern perfectly. He’s publicly stated that he loves taking fighters' "zeroes," and he’s proven it with notable wins over highly-touted prospects like Raul Rosas Jr. and Isaac Dulgarian. Rodriguez’s well-rounded skill set, composed striking, and strong takedown defense allows him to systematically break down aggressive, less-experienced fighters. His experience and confidence in these high-pressure matchups give him a mental edge, and he’ll be highly motivated to hand Bashi his first professional loss.

Bashi, while inexperienced, brings real finishing power and aggressive pressure. His path to victory relies on overwhelming Rodriguez early, but his cardio and defensive grappling have shown weaknesses that Rodriguez can exploit as the fight drags on. If Bashi can't secure an early finish, Rodriguez has the tools to take over and potentially score a finish of his own once Bashi slows down. Both fighters possess clear finishing ability, making it unlikely this fight goes the full three rounds.

Best Bet: Fight Not to Go the Distance (+150). 

The value on this line is too strong to ignore. Bashi’s early knockout potential and Rodriguez’s experience dismantling hyped prospects create multiple pathways for this fight to end inside the distance. Whether Bashi catches Rodriguez early or Rodriguez breaks Bashi down late, this fight provides great plus value money not to see the scorecards.

Punahele Soriano (+180) vs. Uros Medic (-218) Prediction 

This a fight where I feel Medic is clearly the more well-rounded fighter and is in prime position to put Soriano’s lights out. Medic is a technically sound and devastating striker, blending speed, precision, and brutal finishing ability. His left hook and powerful kicks are extremely dangerous, and if he connects early, Soriano simply won’t have the tools to recover. Medic’s aggression and high-output offense are perfectly suited to exploit Soriano’s defensive flaws.

Soriano, while a capable fighter with decent power and solid grappling, has shown inconsistency in his striking and often leaves openings due to his risky, throw-caution-to-the-wind punches. His tendency to get sloppy as fights progress is a recipe for disaster against a precision striker like Medic. Soriano’s grappling could theoretically pose a threat, but Medic’s improved takedown defense and clinch work make it unlikely that Soriano will be able to drag him into deep waters. Soriano’s clearest path to victory would be to try and take this fight to the ground, but Medic’s speed and pressure should shut that down early.

Medic’s fight-ending power is the X-factor here. Soriano’s aggressive style plays right into Medic’s hands, and Medic has all the tools to capitalize. Expect Medic to push the pace from the start, land heavy shots, and overwhelm Soriano with his superior striking. Soriano won’t be able to withstand Medic’s pressure and precision for long.

Best Bet: Uros Medic to Win by TKO/KO (+150). 

Medic is the better, more dangerous fighter in this matchup. His elite striking and finishing ability make a knockout prop at plus money a no-brainer.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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