%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20id%3D%22Layer_1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20width%3D%2239px%22%20height%3D%2240px%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%2039%2040%22%20enable-background%3D%22new%200%200%2039%2040%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M38.5%2C7H28.2v26h10.3V7z%22%2F%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20clip-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M26.1%2C25.5c0%2C5.8-4.1%2C7.5-12.9%2C7.5C3.9%2C33%2C0%2C31.2%2C0%2C25.2v-1.1h11.6%0A%09v2.4c0%2C0.7%2C0.1%2C1.4%2C1.2%2C1.4c1%2C0%2C1.2-0.4%2C1.2-1.3v-0.9c0-1.6-0.9-1.6-3.5-2.2C2.2%2C21.7%2C0%2C19.7%2C0%2C15.3v-0.9C0%2C9.3%2C5.5%2C7%2C12.9%2C7%0A%09c10.2%2C0%2C12.8%2C2.6%2C12.8%2C7.4v1.8h-11v-2.9c0-0.6-0.4-1.1-1.2-1.1c-0.6%2C0-1.2%2C0.4-1.2%2C1.1v0.9c0%2C1.5%2C0.9%2C2%2C3.3%2C2.5%0A%09c8%2C1.6%2C10.5%2C3.3%2C10.5%2C7.5V25.5z%22%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
Underdogs Have Amazing Against The Spread Record in NFL Playoffs
It’s been an amazing run for betting on underdogs in the NFL playoffs. Not necessarily to win outright, but betting them against the spread has been highly profitable.
Not that it’s guaranteed to continue in the AFC and NFC Championship games.
NFL Playoff Underdog ATS Record
This postseason, NFL underdogs are a remarkable 7-3 ATS (against the spread) for bettors. That includes outright wins by the Texans over the Chargers, Commanders over the Bucs and Rams over the Vikings in the wild card, and Commanders overthe Lions in the divisional round. Despite those four wins, underdogs are 4-6 straight up in the playoffs.
Still, 7-3 ATS is nothing to scoff at as betting on every underdog to cover the spread in the playoffs would be profitable for bettors.
As for the conference championship games, that could be a different story.
Bills vs Chiefs Odds
Moneyline
- Chiefs -126
- Bills +108
Spread
- Chiefs -1.5 (-115)
- Bills +1.5 (-105)
Commanders vs Eagles Odds
Moneyline
- Eagles -280
- Commanders +230
Spread
- Eagles -6.5 (-102)
- Commanders +6.5 (-120)
The Chiefs and Eagles are favorites to win the AFC and NFC Championship, respectively. SI NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is betting the Chiefs to cover the spread as favorites but is backing the Commanders at +6.5 points against the Eagles.
Here’s a portion of what he said about the Chiefs in his full betting preview: The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in the second half of the season, including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate and 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. The Chiefs will hand the Bills yet another postseason loss.
Here’s a portion of what he said about the Commanders in his full betting preview. In most cases, I would be laying the points with the Eagles but at this point I simply can't look past Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense. Daniels has been the best rookie quarterback in the history of the sport and may now be the best quarterback in the NFC. His ability to use his legs to his advantage while also remaining calm in the pocket is something I rarely see from a player at his position.
The Commanders lost to the Eagles in Philly in Week 11 26-18, but beat the Eagles in Week 16, 36-33, at home. This game is in Philadelphia, though the Commanders, winners of seven straight, are a much different team than Week 11.
The biggest concern with them lies in their defense. Washington has given up 51 points in two playoff games (25.5 points per game) and gave up 201 rushing yards against the Lions in their upset divisional win. The Eagles are a run-first team who rushed for 211 yards against the Commanders’ Week 16 win. Unless Daniels can lead the Commanders to a big number on offense, which he’s proven he can, they could be in for a bruising game.
Of the two underdogs, the Commanders seem like the smarter play. Even if they’re behind by double-digits late in the game, they can cover the 6.5 number with a late TD if the Eagles are in prevent defense.
Whether you’re backing the Bills or Commanders to cover, the ATS performance has been outstanding for underdogs in these playoffs and certainly suggests one of them will cover this weekend.
More NFL Championship Weekend Betting Stories
manual
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.