Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

The Mercury are favored at home in Thursday's Commissioner's Cup matchup.

Mercury forward Satou Sabally is a solid prop target on Thursday. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Satou Sabally and the Phoenix Mercury are coming off a tough loss on Tuesday in Commissioner’s Cup play, losing to the undefeated Minnesota Lynx. Still, they are favored on Thursday against the Golden State Valkyries.

Golden State has dropped three games in a row, including its first Commissioner’s Cup game in franchise history. The Valkyries were expected to have some offensive issues this season, and those have hit in a big way as of late. Golden State has slipped to 12th in the WNBA in offensive rating, making it one of the better UNDER teams in the league.

Phoenix, on the other hand, is 1-1 in Commissioner’s Cup play and has dealt with injuries to Kahleah Copper, Natasha Mack, and Alyssa Thomas. Despite that, the Mercury are 5-3 and hold the No. 5 spot in the standings.

Thomas (calf) could be back in action for this matchup, but she has missed the last few games for Phoenix.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for Thursday’s Western Conference battle. 

Valkyries vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Valkyries +7.5 (-110)
• Mercury -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Valkyries: +250
• Mercury: -310

Total

• 157 (Over -108/Under -112)

Valkyries vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 5
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Valkyries record: 2-4
• Mercury record: 5-3

Valkyries vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Valkyries Injury Report

• Tiffany Hayes – day-to-day

Note: Hayes left Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Lynx after taking a shot to the face. 

Mercury Injury Report

• Megan McConnell – day-to-day
• Alyssa Thomas – day-to-day
• Kahleah Copper – out
• Natasha Mack – day-to-day

Note: Thomas has missed the last few games for Phoenix with a calf injury. 

Valkyries vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Satou Sabally OVER 29.5 Points and Rebounds (-122)

With so many players in and out of the lineup for Phoenix, Satou Sabally has stepped up in a big way, averaging 20.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.

This prop may seem lofty for her against the Valkyries, but Golden State is just ninth in defensive rating so far in the 2025 season. 

Sabally has picked up 30 or more points and rebounds in four of her eight games, and she’s had an impressive usage rate, taking 16.9 shots and 7.0 free throws per game. If Thomas sits, Sabally could be in line for even more looks on Thursday. 

Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is the play in this Western Conference clash: 

With Copper out and Thomas dealing with a calf injury, the Mercury are a tough team to trust on the offensive end outside of star forward Satou Sabally.

Phoenix ranks just 10th in the WNBA in offensive rating this season, and it has scored 71 or fewer points in four of its last six games. The Mercury – without Thomas – were held to just 65 points in Tuesday’s loss to the Lynx.

Unlike the Minnesota game where the Lynx could carry the other half of the total, the Valkyries will not do that. Golden State is 12th in the WNBA in offensive rating and dead last in effective field goal percentage.

The Valkyries have failed to clear 80 points in five of their six games this season, hitting the UNDER five times. Phoenix is also an elite UNDER team, going 5-2-1 in the 2025 season.

I expect this game to be a bit of a rock fight – especially if Thomas is unable to go.

Pick: UNDER 157 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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